Sun, Aug 04, 2002 page8

• Letter:

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  China threat overstated

  From various news sources in Taiwan as well as the US over the last few days, it has become apparent that a major threat to the psychological security of Taiwanese comes not from the Chinese government, but from the militaries of the US and Taiwan. It would also seem that this psychological attack has been, as in the past, aided and abetted by the media in Taiwan.

  This is not to say that China does not constitute a continuing threat to Taiwan. It does, and it will continue to be a clear and present danger for some time. This is also not to say that continuing improvements to Tai-wan's military structure are not needed. They are needed. What I take issue with is the over-statement of China's current and short-term future military capabilities vis-a-vis Taiwan.

  The simple truth is that China does not, and will not, possess the capability to carry out a successful amphibious assault on the main island of Taiwan.

  In order to stage a successful land assault, the attacker must have three factors in its favor, as laid out in Michael O'Hanlon's article "Why China Cannot Conquer Taiwan" (International Security, Fall 2000).

  The first factor is clear air superiority, something that China does not enjoy. The second factor is the ability to land a large force at an unexpected point of attack. Once again, due to Taiwan's geography, China does not possess this advantage, as there is only a handful of suitable landing areas for troops on Taiwan. Lastly, the attacking force must be able to reinforce its position quickly and with overwhelming strength before the defenders can react.

  It is generally estimated that Taiwan would be able to bring at least 100,000 troops to any given point of attack within 48 hours, whereas China would be hard-pressed to land 20,000 troops within the same time period. The numbers for China are even worse when one considers the kill rates that are typical of attacks on fixed defensive positions by artillery batteries, as anyone who has seen Saving Private Ryan knows.

  Let us then turn to the much-vaunted Chinese ballistic missile force, which seems to be the focus of everyone's concern. The effect of these weapons, while scary, is just that: scary, nothing more. The majority of China's vast missile capability is in the form of SA-2's, which are slowly being replaced by SA-10's (also known as S-300's). These missiles have an accurate range of no more than 300m. They would therefore hit their targets no more than 10 percent of the time. Were they to be used to support a military invasion, the Chinese would expand their entire stock of missiles simply trying to incapacitate Taiwan's air force, and even then they would have only a 50-50 chance of success.

  Whether intended to intimidate Taipei to the negotiating table, or to maintain the specter of self-defeating nuclear and chemical attacks, China's missile threat remains just that: a threat. It is something that should be taken into account, but not overblown by those attempting to profit from arms sales and increased military budgets.

  The people of Taiwan deserve fair and accurate information from both officials and the media so that they may have the tools to view the cross-strait military situation from a rational perspective rather than the emotionally irrational perspective to which over-statements of Taiwan's vulnerability lead.

  It is not only increased budgets that can lead to psychological security for Taiwan's people. Increased and balanced information might do the same. It would reinforce the will of the people of Taiwan to fight for their right of self-determination and not be hoodwinked by prophecies of an Armageddon that is by no means certain.

  Michael Faass
  

  Toronto, Canada
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