"If China uses military force against Taiwan, Taiwan will have to hold out for at least two weeks before the US Congress decides whether to send troops to support Taiwan," a US government official familiar with the situation across the Taiwan Strait has warned. "But both the Taiwanese government and the general public fail to understand the seriousness of the problem."
Along with the rapid increase in China's military power and growing US distrust of China's strategic ambitions, hardline US politicians, initially the most ardent supporters of arms sales to Taiwan and the strengthening of Taiwan-US military relations, are increasingly disenchanted with Taiwan.
Setbacks in US arms sales to Taiwan have developed because of Taiwan's insufficient budgets and the divergent views held by the two nations on the relative importance of each item. The US has spent considerable time and money in recent years evaluating the needs of Taiwan's army, navy and air force. It has also provided suggestions and assistance regarding the integration of weapon systems and strategic planning and tactical cooperation among the three services. But the US understanding of the situation is not always in line with the actual situation on the ground in Taiwan. The emphasis on large numbers of ground forces, for instance, cannot be changed overnight just to meet US objections.
Communication between the Ministry of National Defense and the legislature needs to be strengthened following the wrangling between Taiwan's political parties. These problems have become a headache for the US, turning its anxiety into anger.
Some US political scientists and congressional assistants are suspicious that Taiwan has lost the will to fight and even intends to rely solely on US intervention to safeguard the Taiwan Strait. They no longer mince their words about their disappointment with Taiwan. After a recent briefing by US defense officials in Washington, a visiting Taiwanese lawmaker, Chou Ching-yu (周清玉), repeatedly emphasized at a press conference that Taiwan will take responsibility of defending itself but that more discussion was needed on which weapons to buy.
The US believes that overall knowledge of national defense and security matters is poor in Taiwan and that inadequate discussion takes place before decisions are made. Although US officials have briefed three groups of Taiwanese lawmakers this year, nothing has really been achieved as many legislators either did not understand or weren't paying attention. If Taiwanese lawmakers cannot recruit better aides, the US may become less interested in briefing them and provide less information in the future.
A high-ranking US official noted that, as China's military gets stronger, the US has found it difficult to believe what China says. This is also an important reason why the US Department of Defense believes that China's military threat to Taiwan has become more real and why it does not trust China to uphold the idea of "peaceful unification."
Some US officials are beginning to recommend that Taiwan be equipped with a certain amount of offensive capability. This cannot represent the George W. Bush administration's policy, but it has won more and more supporters within US defense circles. The stronger Taiwan's ability to defend itself, the better it can serve US interests.
The US and China are unlikely to change their political positions radically. For Taiwan, military cooperation with the US is vital. Taiwan does not necessarily have to meet all US demands. But it must remember that the Bush administration's goodwill might change some day and Taiwan cannot afford to count on his hardline faction always being in charge of the White House.
Nadia Tsao is a US correspondent for the Liberty Times.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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