In the autumn of this year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene its 16th National Congress and carry out a transfer of power. The political elite are now seizing every opportunity to jockey for position, and rumors of all sorts abound -- to the extent that the CCP Propaganda Department has acted to exert strict control over public discourse. In addition to controlling the media, they have also placed numerous regulations and prohibitions on the less easily controlled Internet.
The possible scenarios for the transfer of power are roughly as follows. One, Jiang Zemin (
In sum, all the scenarios apart from the first are designed to preserve Jiang's hold on power. Because Jiang has told certain military leaders that he is surrounded by "ambitious careerists," and it is well known that generals and local leaders have rallied around him, it is clear that his desire to stay in power is strong. It's also clear how treacherous the CCP's internal struggles over such matters can be.
Under these conditions, in order to grasp power, every faction is trying to prove its leftist credentials and displaying its nationalism to make clear its own orthodox status.
Since Jiang longs to eat barbecued meat at US President George W. Bush's Texas ranch in October, he has been a bit more polite toward the US recently, and consequently all his fire has been directed at Taiwan.
On the day when President Chen Shui-bian (
It is even said that 100 generals have signed a joint petition to call for action to bring about unification with Taiwan.
One is bound to ask, is it normal behavior for Beijing to buy off a country of only 10,000 people for a price of US$130 million -- enough for every citizen of Nauru to enjoy a windfall of over US$10,000?
Nauru's President Rene Harris and China's Assistant Foreign Minister Zhou Wenzhong (周文重) signed one agreement in Hong Kong to establish relations. Is it normal for a state president to sign an agreement to establish diplomatic relations with a mere assistant foreign minister?
The abnormalities, of course, were the result of China's deliberate, hurried effort to humiliate Chen on the day he became party chairman.
China has engaged in provocation while Chen has done his utmost to express goodwill -- appointing Chen Chung-hsin (
Taiwan certainly must not overreact in the face of China's provocations, but it must adhere to its principles. Too many concessions and expressions of goodwill will only feed China's arrogance and make it more insatiable.
For all their much-vaunted "objections" to China's suppression of Taiwan, some Taiwanese politicians actually expend more energy vilifying the government's foreign policies.
Some TV show hosts even gloat over the nation's setbacks. Apparently they neither identify with, nor have emotions for Taiwan or the Republic of China.
Recently, the US has suffered a series of corporate scandals, a plunging stock market and certain inappropriate actions allegedly involving President Bush and US Vice President Dick Cheney.
The US media, however, does not grab the opportunity to fan the flames of scandal, nor do the opposition parties come out to challenge the government. Congressmen have reached consensuses on anti-terrorism activities and means of salvaging the financial market.
This shows the true quality of US democracy and is the mark of real patriotism.
Back in Taiwan, although some have repeatedly declared how much they identify with Taiwan, it is probably more convincing to say that they are China's "fifth column" in Taiwan.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
Translated by Ethan Harkness and Jackie Lin
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