In a comprehensive assessment of China's military build-up and its impact on cross-strait relations, the US Department of Defense released a report indicating that a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait might be the primary force behind China's military modernization.
The report estimated China's total military spending at US$65 billion a year, more than triple the US$20 billion in defense spending publicly acknowledged by Beijing. It added that China's military spending could increase three or four-fold by 2020.
One of the main findings of the report showed that, while Beijing and Taipei have stated that they would seek a peaceful resolution to the unification issue, the PRC's ambitious military modernization casts a cloud over such statements. The report also revealed that China was moving toward the goal of surprise, deception and shock in the opening phase of an attack and that the PRC has been exploring coercive strategies designed to bring Taiwan down quickly.
China's pursuit of a military solution to the cross-strait issue will result in the deterioration of regional peace and fan the flames of the current cross-strait conflict. First of all, conditions across the Taiwan Strait have been changing ever since the DPP came to power. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has offered several olive branches to Beijing by calling for peaceful dialogue and the putting aside of political disputes. In his inaugural speech, Chen pledged that he would not declare independence unless China used force against Taiwan.
But increasing Taiwanese investment in China has brought the people of the two sides closer together. To facilitate trade and economic contact across the Strait realistically, the Chen administration has replaced the old policy of "no haste, be patient" with the new strategy of "active openness and effective management." The aim, as Chen has publicly said, is to pursue trade and cultural integration and move, hopefully, toward political integration.
Given that Taipei has made practical and flexible concessions to Beijing in the name of cross-strait reconciliation, China should show some goodwill instead of pointing its guns at Taiwan . For Washington, the release of this year's defense report was a timely reminder to those who view the prospects for unification between Taiwan and China through rose-colored spectacles.
The facts detailed in the report demonstrate the military imbalance across the Taiwan Strait. Scholars used to apply the notion of "balance of power" in explaining international relations in the Cold War era. Such a realistic approach deserves special attention when it comes to the question of cross-strait relations. A "military balance" between Taiwan and China requires that both sides stop their current arms race and military build-ups, and renounce the use of force against each other. At the same time, Taiwan's standoff with a hostile China, which is doing its utmost to expand its military power and is aiming missiles at the island, makes national security all the more sensitive, making it all the more necessary that precipitate action be avoided.
The potential military imbalance between Taiwan and China in the next few years has not only become a regional concern but has also created intense debate in Washington on the issue of strengthening military assistance to Taipei. In this regard, if China renounces military intimidation and respects the freely expressed will of the Taiwanese people, the two sides will be able to begin integration in the cultural, economic and trade fields before further seeking a new framework for permanent peace and political integration.
While Chen has repeatedly stressed that Taiwan has no intention of starting an arms race with China, it is necessary for Taiwan to maintain a defensive capability in the face of Beijing's military expansion. Nevertheless, it takes two to tango. Whether Beijing has carried out a rigorous cost-benefit analysis of its own military expansion remains to be seen. Succession issues and the way China will handle its own social forces in the wake of WTO accession constitute the toughest jobs facing Chinese leaders at the present time.
After all, China must accept the fact that the DPP is the largest political party in Taiwan and recognize Chen's legitimacy.
Any thoughts of Chen being sidelined or becoming a lame duck during the remainder of his term are impractical. Beijing's attempts in the past to bypass Chen and ally with Taiwan's opposition failed. But a passive, wait-and-see strategy would not facilitate reconciliation.
In sum, only through official channels can both sides of the Taiwan Strait restart meaningful dialogue and establish constructive cooperation. Taiwan has shown another olive branch to Beijing. It's up to China to seize it.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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