Former president Lee Teng-hui (
Taiwan's slow economic recovery is lending more weight to pro-China business people calling for direct transport, mail and trade links across the Taiwan Strait -- allowing them to pressure the government to change its policy. Meanwhile, Taiwanese capital is flowing out to China at an ever higher speed. Many Taiwanese businesses have left their debts in Taiwan. The hollowing out of local industries is becoming more and more serious and will inevitably cause unemployment to rise and increase the economy's dependency on the China market. This is also why US and Japanese scholars have been continuously warning Taiwan's government and people.
But with the shadow of economic decline still looming, Taiwan will have to go through the major ordeal of the 2004 presidential election before arriving at 2008. The opposition parties, glaring like tigers at their prey, are already sharpening their knives in preparation for taking power. They are giving no breathing space to the DPP government, which lacks experience in governance. We can expect another round of nasty fighting in the 2004 presidential election.
Some political observers in Taiwan believe that Taiwanese national consciousness will become more pronounced after the 2004 election, no matter which party wins, because the call for Taiwan to prevent the fate of being gobbled up by China is going to be the key issue in that election. If President Chen Shui-bian (
Therefore, by the time of the 2008 election, acceptance of Taiwan as a separate country outside China will become a majority opinion under Chen's leadership. A majority of the Taiwanese public will then be vaccinated against the flames of nationalism stoked by the Beijing Olympic Games. They will not be led around by the pro-unification media by their noses to the echo of the "one country, two systems" absurdity.
What Taiwan should be really worried about is, of course, whether Chen will lose the 2004 election. Such a major political impact and change will turn the current "one China, one Taiwan" stance insisted upon by Taiwan's officialdom -- ie that Taiwan is an independent political entity -- into a "one China, with each side making its own interpretation" policy. If the KMT, the PFP or a KMT-PFP alliance comes to power, then any changes that have been made to assert Taiwan as a policy entity will be thrown out. This is perhaps a situation Lee does not want to see.
To prevent such a situation, Lee has raised the issue at this particular point in order to prompt public discussion. His observations are very accurate. No matter what the choice of the Taiwanese electorate will be, they should, by reflecting on the questions raised by Lee, engage in all-round discussion of Taiwan's future political direction and cross-strait relations. Only then will they not be confused by the fatal attraction of Chinese nationalism and forget the communist regime's contempt for democracy and its suppression of human rights.
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