China's fundamental international strategies have all been laid down within a framework based on cooperation with Russia and Europe and counter-balancing the US. This framework contains a few vital weaknesses.
One weaknesses is that despite occasional disagree-ments, the EU and US are traditional allies and it will be next to impossible for China to sow dissension between them on some major issues of principle.
A second weakness is that even though Russia still sees itself as a great power, its actual influence has diminished and it would be impossible for it not to lean on Europe and the US for support. Not long ago, Russia and the US signed a new arms non-proliferation treaty. Russia's inclusion in NATO operations is also a heavy blow to China.
Only one option remains for China and that is to turn to Asia, and Southeast Asia in particular, in a bid to become a regional power. The way to achieve this is through economic penetration.
Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) visited Vietnam in early March, promising credit and loans worth US$120 million. At the end of March, Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri was granted a loan of US$400 million during a visit to China and investments by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (中國海洋石油總公司) in Indonesia earlier this year are the largest in the world by an offshore oil company.
During the first half of this year, China tried hard to expand its transportation links with Southeast Asia and it is very possible that China will connect its road network with Thailand's freeway network. This would connect China with Singapore, creating a "pan-asian highway."
China has also begun wooing regional organizations. Malaysia, the Philippines and other ASEAN members are suspicious of entering into a free-trade pact with China out of concern for the impact Chinese exports will have on their economies. However, China has been very active, promising to open the market for tropical agricultural products to ASEAN exports. This has eliminated some doubts and so it is possible that a free-trade deal between ASEAN and China will become reality sooner than expected.
China has two main concerns about its expansion in Asia: economics and politics. If China wants to maintain its economic growth, it has to increase exports. Such an investment environment could attract more foreign investment to China. Politically, neutralizing US influence in South-east Asia and consolidating diplomatic influence along its borders are necessary. This would be both a show of aggression and a demonstration of self-restraint -- a reflection of China's awkward international situation.
The strategy to win over Asian countries through economic means seems to be working fine, but it also suffers from some intrinsic problems, including the ambivalence and suspicion among smaller states towards regional powers. Even Singa-pore's former leader, the pro-China Lee Kuan-yew (李光耀), has emphasized the importance of a power balance in Southeast Asian.
A second problem is that the US, Japan and Indonesia also are strengthening their efforts to woo nations in the region. The US is engaged in negotiations with Vietnam over the lease of the Kimlan Bay military base, for example.
The third problem is also the most important. Diplomacy is based on actual economic power and China's success in winning allies economically will be determined by whether its economy can keep growing. The outlook is not positive, which means that China's strategy of expansion towards Asia will be neither long lasting nor smooth.
Wang Dan was a student leader during the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations in Beijing.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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