On June 26, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) attended a promotion ceremony for navy, air force and army personnel. During the ceremony, the president indicated that the impression that tension in cross-strait relations has eased in recent years is actually an illusion fabricated by China's use of the media and civilian exchanges. This has seriously impaired the ability of the people of Taiwan to draw a line between the enemy and ourselves. President Chen also said that the biggest threat to our national security remains China's continued refusal to renounce the use of force against Taiwan. Previously, Chen had said that the essence of China's Taiwan policy is to annihilate the Republic of China, in order to impose its rule over Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu.
According to reports in The Washington Post, since China purchased eight Kilo-class submarines from Russia, its ability to mount a naval blockade of Taiwan has massively increased. As a result, China also poses serious challenges to US naval superiority in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Russia has also promised extensive additional arms sales to China, including two Sovremeny-class destroyers, a shipment of S300PMU2 air-defense missiles and 45 SU-K30MKK combat bombers, among other items. The purpose of China's military expansion is obviously to enable it to control the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, to give it the capability to resolve differences with other countries through force. The UK newspaper, The Times has also published reports to this effect.
In April The Washington Post also revealed Pentagon reports that in the previous three weeks China had shipped approximately 20 Dongfeng-11 short-range ballistic missiles to a military base so close to Taiwan that its missiles could hit the island. The number of Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan has increased from less than 50 in 1997 to more than 350 and is expected to continue to increase by approximately 50 each year. The US estimates that the figure is likely to reach 650 by 2005. All this indicates that we cannot afford to relax our guard to cross-strait developments.
Even as China intensifies its military threat toward Taiwan, however, it is also stepping up its so-called "peaceful unification propaganda" towards the country. Its purpose is to mislead the Taiwanese people and the international community with the illusion of peace. The words and deeds of pro-China Taiwanese businessmen, media and opposition politicians all suggest that the propaganda effect of this illusion has been considerable. Indeed it appears, perversely, to have caused many to treat China's military threats as an olive branch. In particular, even certain government officials are known to spend their days singing the tune of cross-strait peace, regarding it as the foundation for cross-strait policy. All talk about implementation of the so-called global industrial strategies from China, and the inevitability of direct links is a product of the misguided belief in this illusory peace.
In early May, Chen said in Tatan that if Chinese leaders were willing, he would be willing to invite them to visit "for tea and a chat." He emphasized that permanent peace in the Taiwan Strait had to be founded upon the normalization of cross-strait relations. That normalization would have to begin with the normalization of the trade and economic relationship. The first step to cross-strait political integration must begin with cultural, trade and economic integration. He said that direct cross-strait links are inevitable. With all due respect to Chen, however, we would like to point out that Taiwan's economic dependency on China continues to increase, giving China far greater ability to spread unification propaganda by economic means. This is all the result of a China fever created under an illusion of peace. Under such circumstances, how can we possibly talk about cultural, trade, economic and political integration?
Chinese officials repeatedly say that direct links are a domestic matter, and that the "one China" principle must be upheld. There is no room to haggle, they say. The so-called "principles" upon which China insists the three direct links must be based are "one China," direct two-way links and mutuality of benefits. To put it bluntly, this is a three-stage takeover of Taiwan. Think about it. At a time when Taiwan sees direct cross-strait links as inevitable, and is desperately trying to upgrade the experimental "small three links" into full-scale direct links, China has already set up a trap to greet Taiwan. If Taiwan does not soon step on the brake on direct links, it will surely find itself driving into this trap. As enthusiasm for direct links rises among Taiwan's officials, it is surely inevitable that China will become all the more obdurate on its position that direct links is a domestic matter. Taiwan's economy and politics are already at risk of skewing disproportionally toward China. The addition of direct two-way links will surely result in Taiwan being engulfed by China, rather than any mutual benefits.
The US has repeatedly stated recently that the differences across Taiwan Strait must be resolved through peaceful means, warning China not to resort to military means and promising to abide by the Taiwan Relations Act. The US government is taking the trouble to repeatedly issue such warnings because it is all too well aware of the threats posed by China's arms build-up under the illusion of cross-strait peace. As for Taiwan's government, however, even as it seeks to purchase defensive arms from the US in response to China's military threats, it is at the same time opening up industry and capital investments to China on a large scale, willingly suffering tremendous losses in technology and manpower. This opening-up policy is obviously based on a cross-strait peace that does not exist. At the same time, however, the Taiwan government asks its people to know who its enemies are. No wonder this self-contradictory approach is confusing the people of Taiwan. The notion of fostering peace through economic exchanges just happens to facilitate the illusory peace fabricated by China.
Our goal is peace in the Taiwan Strait. But cross-strait peace is not just an abstract term. Rather, it is a condition defined by substantive and concrete criteria. Currently, the substantive evidence, including China's military threats, its diplomatic maneuvers and its ambition, show clearly that cross-strait peace is nothing but an illusion. The people of Taiwan cannot afford to relax their guard to the enemy. In this environment our president should start from this reality in drafting comprehensive policies on the country's survival and development. With his mandate from the people of this country, the president has a responsibility to guarantee the safety of those people. Chen's statement that cross-strait peace is an illusion fabricated by China is in essence a wake-up call at a time when China fever is spreading rapidly among both the ruling and opposition camps. We hope that Chen can start by postponing direct links. He should also lead the government in reversing policies that encourage investment in China, rather than investment at home. He must set an example in order to dampen the logic-defying China fever.
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