The US is playing an increasingly active role in trying to defuse the dangerous confrontation between India and Pakistan. US President George W. Bush had lately dispatched Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to South Asia on urgent diplomatic missions.
It is entirely appropriate for the US to engage in such diplomacy and encourage India and Pakistan to step back from the brink of war. An armed conflict between two states armed with nuclear weapons is obvious cause for alarm. As they pursue these diplomatic initiatives, however, US officials must be careful that the parties to the dispute do not succeed in manipulating the US into advancing their parochial policy agendas.
That danger is especially acute with regard to Pakistan. Pakistani leaders have long sought to entice or pressure Washington into seeking to mediate the Kashmir dispute. Islamabad's conduct in the latest crisis is consistent with that objective. President Pervez Musharraf not only repeatedly provoked India by allowing Kashmiri insurgents to operate from Pakistan's territory, but when the crisis flared in recent weeks, he seemed willing, if not eager, to intensify it. Pakistan's decision to test its missiles on three separate occasions in the midst of an already tense situation is testimony to that fact.
During the current crisis (as well as during the crisis last December and January), Musharraf has also been less than subtle about rattling Pakistan's nuclear sabers. Although the primary purpose of such bellicose actions undoubtedly is to deter India from launching a military offensive, they also seem calculated to alarm the US and pressure Washington to become more actively engaged. Is it merely a coincidence that Islamabad's belligerent actions are invariably accompanied by calls for outside mediation of the Kashmir dispute?It is not a far-fetched scenario to imagine the US becoming so worried about the prospect of an Indo-Pakistani war that it would abandon its reluctance to become involved in the emotional and complex Kashmir dispute. But that would be a grave mistake. US mediation would suit the military regime in Islamabad just fine. India, however, would deeply resent such a diplomatic intrusion by the US. Indian leaders have made it clear on numerous occasions that they regard the Kashmir issue as a bilateral matter between India and Pakistan and that outside mediation-by the US, the UN, or anyone else-is unacceptable.
Washington would be wise to respect India's wishes. India is not only the leading power in South Asia, it is a rising great power with increasing influence outside that region.
The growth rate of India's economy in recent years has been brisk, and New Delhi is spending the money needed to create a first-class military. In another decade or two, India is likely to be firmly ensconced in the ranks of the world's major powers.
The US needs to be on good terms with that rising great power. Relations between Washington and New Delhi have improved in recent years, but the legacy of decades of suspicion (when India and the US were often on opposite sides in Cold War controversies) has yet to be fully overcome. Any US attempt to intrude into the Kashmir dispute will reignite those suspicions.
Moreover, trying to be a mediator would be a frustrating, thankless role for the US. Once entangled, Washington would be continuously prodded by Pakistan to pressure India to make concessions. We've seen a similar scenario before in another part of the world. Yasser Arafat routinely intensifies a crisis environment whenever he wants the US to exert pressure on Israel. Washington already has one diplomatic headache in the Middle East; it doesn't need another one in South Asia.
The US should exert its influence to get India and Pakistan to retreat from the abyss of war. But the Bush administration needs to understand that Islamabad is also trying to maneuver Washington into playing a role that would advance Pakistan's policy goals regarding Kashmir. It is imperative that the US not play that game. The US must not jeopardize an important long-term relationship with India by becoming Pakistan's unwitting pawn.
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and is the author or editor of 13 books on international affairs.
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