Direct links often seem like the Gordian knot of Taiwan's politics -- an apparently intractable mess that generates enormous quantities of sound and fury instead of any progress, while the rest of society simply sighs and shakes their heads. However, if one makes a serious effort to cut through the political fog, there are practical solutions that just might work.
The key is to break each element of the equation down into its key aspects, with the various interests and risks at stake clearly identified, along with the political pressures. Take passenger air service, the most salient piece of the puzzle for most people (although not necessarily the most important in real economic terms). By far the most important beneficiaries would obviously be business-people whose work requires them to travel back and forth between Taiwan and China (ie, not only to Hong Kong). We may subdivide this group into Taiwanese busi-nesspeople who are investing or selling in China, and third-country businesspeople whose companies have operations in both Taiwan and China.
Enthusiasts claim that direct links may also encourage a new phenomenon, Chinese business-people who come to Taiwan to invest. Whether they would be allowed to do so, of course, is a completely separate issue from the direct links, and one might well wonder how large such investment flows would really be (unless directed by Beijing).
Who else would benefit? There is an interest in convenience for people who want to visit relatives in China, as well as to travel to China for tourism. Once again we can distinguish between Taiwan-ese tourists, who frankly could just as easily take their vacations in Thailand or Japan, and third-country tourists, who might be more likely to add Taiwan to an Asian itinerary if connections were more convenient.
This leads to another key interest group, the travel industry, including travel agents, hotels and, last but certainly not least, the airlines themselves.
What are the downsides? There is one immediate national security risk, the possibility that civil aviation could weaken Taiwan's air defenses. One would think that technology (better radars, etc) could solve this issue, but it wasn't that long ago (1988) that the US Navy (an AEGIS cruiser, to be precise) mistook an Iranian airliner for a hostile fighter, or for that matter that the US used South Korean airliners to probe the Soviet air defense radar network.
Aside from that, the main costs are political. There is an issue of national dignity arising if the planes are not allowed to fly their respective national flags. More seriously, there is also a legal issue -- how should the flights be regulated? China insists they should be considered domestic flights, which would not only be held to lower standards than international ones, but would raise a serious concern about what kind of dispute-resolution mechanisms could be available if needed.
Looming in the background is the concern that, if China successfully wins this debate, it might possibly trigger a "slippery slope" erosion of Taiwan's sovereignty in other areas.
The main source of political pressure on the government to move on direct links comes, of course, from the business sector. Local businesspeople are naturally a formidable constituency, given the importance of their political donations; foreign businesspeople wield the fairly dire threat of withholding or even withdrawing investment in Taiwan. On the other hand, both groups (especially domestic) appear to be willing to use the links as a bargaining chip for other benefits from the government. The main exception is the travel business, especially the airlines, which cannot imagine any more inviting goodies the government could offer.
Of course, one should never forget the unificationist politicians and their media allies, who are doing their best to use the links issue as a key bludgeon against the government. One notices, how-ever, that as soon as President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) actually looked ready to make some kind of breakthrough, they all started to change their tune. In other words, they can basically be ignored.
And the public? Aside from those who actually need to go to China (for example, for family visits or religious pilgrimages), they seem still to be sitting on the fence on this issue, basically taking a conservative approach and not wanting to rush into things.
Now, does any of this help illuminate any possible solutions? In fact, it does. The serious benefit of direct air links is simply the ability to make convenient flights between Taiwan and certain cities in China (especially Shanghai). The risks and costs come from possible "dual use" of Chinese airliners, and from the tangled regulatory and enforcement issues.
The answer is simple -- links should be opened, but in the initial stage they should be limited to third-country airlines, as a "fifth freedom" extension of their existing flights to Taipei or Kaohsiung. If, say, United Airlines or Japan Airlines were to have flights from San Francisco or Tokyo to Taipei, then connecting on to Shanghai, and passengers could buy tickets for either leg or both, then the basic needs of businesspeople and others could certainly be met. As a side benefit, it would certainly get the US off the government's back. At the same time, the flag issue would simply vanish, as would the "dual use" threat. And of course these flights would be subject to the same regulations as international ones, no questions asked.
In fact, one and only one interest group would be unhappy -- Taiwan's airlines. They are guaranteed to scream bloody murder, even if they are promised that after a suitable trial period (at least a year), and assuming the Chinese side hasn't thrown up any egregious roadblocks, they would be able to apply for additional routes and flights. They won't take much comfort, either, that they might be able to gain some "fifth freedom" privileges in other countries in exchange.
But so what? I think it is the responsibility of any policymaker to at least attempt to create the greatest good for the greatest number.
Put the other way, Taiwan shouldn't allow such a critical area of national policy to be held hostage by the bosses of a tiny handful of companies. Let Evergreen Marine (
Bo Tedards is a political commentator based in Taipei.
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