On April 21, political circles worldwide were shocked by the news that extreme-right National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen defeated Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin in the first round of the French presidential elections.
There are always two ways to comment on election results. One attaches great importance to candidates themselves; the other focuses on the election environment. These two perspectives are very different from each other, as the former stresses election tools and the latter stresses election culture. As a political observer, I prefer to comment on the issue from the latter perspective, based on my long-term experience of living in Europe.
Did Le Pen win in the first round because he was an excellent candidate? The answer is "no." His victory can be best explained by the European economic transformation that took place after the Cold War came to an end. The Soviet Union and East Europe crumbled when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989. This suddenly changed the long-standing political antagonism between the East and the West. Since the tensions of the Cold War disappeared, long-hidden domestic contradictions in European countries have come to the surface.
After the Industrial Revolution, mainstream European policies paved the way for systems that upheld social welfare. Under these circumstances, both the average age of citizens and the proportion of senior citizens increased. As a result, European competitiveness declined while the unemployment rate rose. Government leaders in Europe have long wanted to end these social systems. Coincidentally, this idea is confronted by today's globalization. As the total number of immigrants continuously grows in Europe -- partly as a result of globalization -- unemployment has triggered debates over the distribution of interests of different ethnic groups.
The European economy in the post-Cold War era is in a bad way, as it was before Nazi leader Adolf Hitler came to power. But the economic hardship itself is insufficient to explain the growing right-wing trend in Europe after the Cold War, as the European political transformation is also involved. An economic recession is considered a highly technical matter that can only be explained by well-trained economists -- with the help of economic tools. The public can hardly absorb such professional concepts. In contrast, they can quickly understand and circulate the concepts explained by so-called "cultural genes" -- including ideas such as "conspiracy," "enemy" and "patriotism" -- as proposed by Richard Dawkins and Arron Lynch. As with biological genes, some "cultural genes," in the form of a ideas, have features that ensure they will be passed on to others. Take Hitler for example. He seized the economic crises of Germany as an opportunity to spread the rumor of a "conspiracy" between the Jews and the German Communist Party, telling the public that the Germanic people were superior to others, and that the Jews were the enemy. Thus, the Federal Republic of Germany could be victorious only when the Jews were defeated. After the Cold War, extreme-right political parties in Europe are using almost the same brainwashing tricks as Hitler's. They have made use of "cultural genes" of love and hate to slowly push the European political culture in a direction that is favorable to the Right.
Among these extreme-right political parties, the Austrian Freedom Party has actually taken part in a coalition government. Established in 1955, the party had been led since 1986 by Joerg Haider, a graduate of the Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration. Following the party's victory in the 1999 elections, it formed a coalition with the conservative People's Party in early 2000.
Haider won international notoriety by upholding slogans such as "Beat it, foreigners!" and has praised Hitler and participated in Nazi activities. The European Parliament boycotted the Austrian coalition immediately after its establishment. It threatened to cancel Austria's membership if Haider did not surrender his party's position in the Austrian government. The US even recalled its ambassador to Austria in protest.
Finally, on Feb. 28, 2000, Haider was forced to resign as party chairman. This can best be described by the old Chinese saying, "As vice rises one foot, so virtue rises ten" (魔高一尺, 道高一丈). It shows that although the European political order is leaning to the Right, the transformation is not yet complete.
As for the impact of the Le Pen phenomenon, there are four possibilities for Taiwan's political development:
First, Taiwan may have its own Le Pen someday. This is not impossible if the "cultural gene" of ethnic hatred quickly spreads across the island.
Second, Taiwan may have a Le Pen-like candidate who is "genetically" different from the French one, as he or she is a moderate rightist outside and radical inside.
Third, Taiwan may never have its own Le Pen, as the island is immune to the "cultural genes" of love and hate.
Fourth, the Le Pen-style "cultural genes" may only be seen in certain local politicians.
The chances for the above possibilities are uneven. Although the transformation of Taiwan's political culture is usually influenced by the international community, the fourth possibility is most likely to occur.
Although Haider was elected by the Austrian voters, he was unable to take part in the coalition -- because the European political environment is not suitable for extreme-rightists such as Haider. On the other hand, it is the responsibility not only of the political parties but also of the voters in Taiwan to prevent the Le Pen effect from happening here.
After the theory of "cultural gene" was proposed, it became clear that thoughts, just like viruses, are contagious. Hence, we should never stir up love and hate for political interests -- no matter how attractive a slogan may be, such as "Taiwan first" (台灣優先), or how touching the issue is. Otherwise, we will be manipulated by some politicians who only care about attracting votes.
Tao Zai-pu was a professor at Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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