Fri, Apr 05, 2002 page12

• Nuclear threat part of strategic balance

  • By Chang Pai-ta 張百達
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  The leaking of a review of US nuclear-weapons policy on Jan. 8 caused widespread concern because it revealed that the US would consider using nuclear weapons in a conflict in the Tai-wan Strait. Some scholars in Taiwan have urged the government to take a clear position opposing the US on this matter. Replying to written questions from legislators a few days ago, the Ministry of National Defense issued a "five no's" nuclear policy and expressed its concerns about the US report. This response has in turn worried senior national security officials.

  War rarely resolves problems, and frequently creates new ones. People don't want war in the Strait, especially not a nuclear war. We have to understand, however, that regardless of whether the US has deployed nuclear weapons in Taiwan in the past -- and even though it refers to the possible use of nuclear weapons in the review -- this doesn't necessarily mean that such wea-pons would be used in a conflict. Words and deeds are sometimes two entirely different things when it comes to strategic deterrence. To prevent war, however, it is necessary to create a deterrent to force one's adversary to think twice before attacking. This is very important.

  The use of nuclear weapons in the Strait would not be without risk for the US and is, of course, not the only option. The US would also have to consider the possibility of Chinese nuclear retaliation on US frontline military bases.

  The review therefore does not necessarily imply the actual use of nuclear weapons. It could be intended merely to deter the Chinese army from recklessly attacking Taiwan.

  To be effective, strategies of nuclear deterrence must involve sufficient military capacity, planning and preparations to convince the adversary that there is a real possibility that nuclear arms could be used in a conflict.

  A few days ago, Admiral Dennis Blair of the US Pacific Command stated unequivocally in a congressional hearing that China is deploying large numbers of ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, saying that this not only poses a major threat to Taiwan, but also that the US doesn't have the capability to deal with the threat. This deployment has continued unabated despite Taiwan's demonstrations of goodwill. In fact, the missile deployment has drastically undermined Taiwan's defensive capabilities, despite the purchase of new hardware in recent years.

  Beijing's threat to use force as a last resort to solve the "Taiwan issue" is still credible. As China's missile deployments bring the financial cost of war down, the possibility of armed action increases. The US policy of leaving open the possibility of using nuclear weapons makes a Chi-nese attack on Taiwan more difficult. The goal is to maintain a strategic balance in the Strait to avoid war.

  The defense ministry has clearly considered the influence of China's hawks in issuing its response. While China continues to deploy missiles, it should recognize that Taiwan has still not reneged on its promise not to develop a nuclear capability. This may be Taiwan's greatest show of goodwill.

  Chang Pai-ta is a deputy research fellow on the DPP's Policy Committee.
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