It is generally acknowledged that there is no clear cut-off point at which the safeguarding of national security ends and freedom of the press begins. The debate about the prosecutors' raid on Next magazine after it reported on the leaking of national security secrets by a former National Security Bureau (NSB) cashier, has not only resulted in a most serious domestic crisis for President Chen Shui-bian's (
A key indicator of the state of cross-strait relations is the extent of Beijing's understanding of Taiwan's domestic politics. In terms of bridging the political gap between Taipei and Beijing, Chen has offered an olive branch to his counterpart by expressing willingness to resume dialogue as well as relaxing restrictions on Taiwanese investment in China. But his moderate approach has been stonewalled by Beijing. Not only have the Chinese leaders ignored Chen's overtures, but they have also bypassed the government to deal with the pro-unification camp.
Beijing's strategy of "uniting the secondary enemy to fight against the chief enemy" came to a dead end after Chen's DPP became the largest party in the legislature in last December's elections. Without doubt, the results of that election put Beijing under heavy pressure in terms of how to react to the new political situation. Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen (
Despite the fact that Beijing has displayed a somewhat new approach to cross-strait relations, opinions diverge on the reason for China's sudden about-face.
The optimistic view argues that it is time for China to recognize the political reality. That is, Beijing must accept the fact that Chen is the decision-maker. There will be no cross-strait progress if they don't deal with Chen directly.
The conservative view, however, holds that since China is facing more contentious issues, including the political succession and WTO compliance, Beijing will continue to play its "wait and see" card on Chen's performance.
Changes in Taiwan's domestic politics will therefore determine China's policy toward Taiwan. Are the DPP's election success and the rise of the TSU offering some flexibility for Taipei in cross-strait relations? Some people say former president Lee Teng-hui (
The NSB scandal obviously offered a chance for Chinese leaders to resume their old strategy of anticipating the decline of Chen's leadership. It also reinforced their willingness to wait and see whether PFP ChairmanJames Soong (
This state of affairs no doubt represents the Chen administration's greatest challenge. While the DPP is the largest political party in the Legislative Yuan, it has been having difficulties establishing a solid majority.
At the same time, Chen has been able to initiate a series of domestic reforms such as the crackdown on "black gold" politics and grassroots financial restructuring. The governmental reform campaign is also under intensive review. Attempts to revitalize the economy, however, were dealt a severe blow when Christine Tsung (
How successfully Chen solves domestic crises and incorporates the idea of healthy institutionalization into Taiwan's aged military and national security systems will determine his chances of winning re-election. The world will be watching carefully how the administration tackles these thorny problems because of the way in which it does so will demonstrate whether Chen is a capable leader who can successfully walk a tightrope.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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