US President George W. Bush's recent trip to China was of great significance to Chinese leaders. For the last two decades, US presidents have usually looked askance at Chinese leaders upon first assuming power. After all, China is a communist superpower upholding ideologies diametrically opposed to those of the US.
After a brief period of adjustment, however, reality has always brought US presidents to China, acknowledging its status as a leading nation while paying res-pect to its power. From former president Ronald Reagan to Bush, there has been no exception. As for Bush's trip, the Chinese leaders must definitely have thought, "So, you have come at last!"
The initial months of the Bush presidency were unpleasant ones for Sino-US relations. The US not only downgraded Beijing from a "strategic partner" to a "strategic competitor," but it also expanded its arms sales to Taiwan and enthusiastically welcomed President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) during his stopovers in the US.
These moves clearly showed that Bush was unwilling to follow former president Bill Clinton's conciliatory China policy. Concerns grounded in realism, however, finally brought Bush to the Forbidden City on the 30th anniversary of President Nixon's first visit to China. Once again, a US president bowed before reality.
Bush stayed in China for less than two days, following visits to Japan and South Korea. No new ideas were aired during the visit and no agreements on China's arms or technology export controls were signed. Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) even refused Bush's request to pass a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. All this, however, is not important. What is significant is that the incumbent US president finally visited China -- the culmination of the two nations' adjustment period over the past year.
As Sino-US relations have fluctuated since the US presidential election, they have repeatedly brought hopes and disappointment to Taiwan. This time, Taiwan watched Bush's moves closely, worrying that improved Taiwan-US relations might be damaged as Bush thirsted for Beijing's friendship.
The DPP government has recently been able to enjoy certain advantages in cross-strait competition after winning the Dec. 1 elections. As a result Beijing has been forced to deal with the DPP, saying that DPP members are welcome to visit China in the appropriate capacities. The US, however, exerts considerable influence on the matter. The DPP's chips will be insufficient if Washington leans to Beijing in the future.
It is clear that the US has moved toward realism in this phase. Meanwhile, Chinese foreign policy will gradually become less flexible with the Chinese Communist Party's 16th National Party Congress approaching -- because Chinese leaders are afraid of being criticized as cowards by those challenging them for their positions.
Such an environment is disadvantageous to Taiwan, since it is not easy for Taiwan to obtain support from the US. Although the DPP is a strengthened political force domestically, it is difficult for the ruling party to pursue its own ideology at this moment due to the unfavorable international situation. It is also difficult for it to seek a breakthrough in cross-strait relations with the party congress approaching.
Beijing opened a window to better cross-strait relations when Bush showed his goodwill to Taipei soon after coming to office. Now, the window of opportunity has been closed. As for the next opportunity, we may have to wait until the leadership changes in China are completed, by which time the new Chinese leaders may be interested in and capable of cross-strait talks.
Wu Yu-shan is a professor of political science at National Taiwan University.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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