Although the DPP has a pro-independence clause in its party charter, not all party members are pro-independence activists. Their attitudes toward China range on the political spectrum from the left and center to the right. The party has six factions, all with differing interests. Having been in office for 20 months, President Chen Shui-bian (
Taiwan's electorate is divided into two major camps -- the "pan-blue" and the "pan-green" -- with 60 percent and 40 percent approval ratings respectively. Pro-independence forces are not the majority. On the contrary, around 80 percent of all people insist on maintaining the status quo of the ROC. This is one of the biggest obstacles to the DPP implementing its independence clause.
Taking advantage of thriving international trade and the global division of labor over the past three or four decades, Taiwan has become one of the four "Asian tigers." As Taiwan's economy and social structures have developed, employment has decreased in the manufacturing and agricultural sector and increased in the service sector, thereby driving up average incomes.
ILLUSTRATION: YU SHA
As a result of the rising incomes, Taiwan faces fierce economic competition from developing countries. The country is already shifting from being a product exporter to a capital exporter, with small and medium-sized businesses gradually moving abroad to cut production costs. A large quantity of companies and capital have relocated to China, leading to a rise in Taiwan's unemployment rate and a subsequent decrease in production.
To boost the quality of products and find a niche within the international market in this high-tech era, it is necessary to develop and train high-tech talent. But the cost of such development is quite high. At present, a substantial number of Taiwan's high-tech companies have started to transfer their R&D departments to China to reduce labor costs. This may become a fatal weakness in the development of Taiwan's long-term productivity. Once a majority of high-tech R&D departments move out, Taiwan will lack the driving force for social and economic development that it has had since the 1960s and 1970s. If this situation continues, the economic power Taiwan uses to counter China will be weakened, thereby affecting the will of the people.
Meanwhile, after more than 20 years of reform, China has greatly strengthened its overall national competitiveness. With the input of capital and technology from Taiwan, Hong Kong and other countries, China's economy will surpass that of Taiwan if there are no large-scale natural disasters or great upheavals in Chinese society over the next 10 to 20 years. By that time, Taiwan's "pan-blue" camp will likely find the idea of Taiwanese independence even more unpalatable. Ultimately, many "pan-green" voters could defect to the "pan-blue" camp.
China's strategy against Taiwan has become more covert, centralized and sharper, as evident in Qian Qichen's (錢其琛) statement on Jan. 24 to mark the anniversary of "Jiang's Eight Points" (江八點) and in his speech at the conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office on Jan. 30.
First, in terms of political propaganda, China is focusing its efforts on dividing and disintegrating the DPP and shaking the political base of the Chen government. This is the fundamental strategy behind the distinction Qian made between the majority of the DPP from a minority of die-hard pro-independence activists. Second, China is using the direct links issue to hollow out Taiwan's capital, technology and talent and ruin Taiwan's economy by attracting the nation's conglomerates. What "independent" existence can Taiwan talk about when its economy is facing collapse?
Qian said on Jan. 30: "Now we must especially raise our guard against `gradual Taiwanese independence.' We must adopt proactive measures, further foster cross-strait economic cooperation and promote direct links between the two sides." The statement reveals the deepest levels of the conspiracy by China's high-level leadership. Recently, some people in Taiwanese political parties have been praising the "goodwill and pragmatism" of Qian's speech. Are the comments really genuine? This reminds one of remarks by Taiwanese leaders years ago saying China was the hinterland for Taiwan's economic development. But later they set the "no haste, be patient"
China's stance
From the viewpoint of Chinese nationalism, no one in power in China -- be it the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the KMT or a future democratic administration -- is likely to readily give up Taiwan and let it become independent. If Beijing simply let Taiwan become independent or failed to prevent the development of the pro-independence movement, it would immediately face opposition or even attack from the Chinese people and end up losing power. As it looks now, peaceful unification with Taiwan is still the wish of the Chinese people. Chinese nationalism, therefore, is another obstacle facing Taiwan independence.
As regards the trends in economic development, China's economic growth rate is higher than that of Taiwan. Taiwan-China trade accounts for 20 percent of Taiwan's overall trade. The proportion may now increase following the two sides' WTO entry. This will tie Taiwan's economy to China's. This is China's long-term strategy and is quite treturous for Taiwan. In Shanghai and Jiangsu provinces alone, there are more than 300,000 Taiwanese businessmen with hundreds of billions of dollars invested. It is likely the sum is still on the rise -- evidence of China's economic appeal for Taiwan. Taiwan's economy needs China's market and hinterland to develop its economy and the pro-independence forces cannot resist this flow of capital and talent.
But China's economy has many persistent ailments, brought about by the CCP's authoritarian system. Various economic and social conflicts are intensifying in China. After they develop to a certain degree, the Chinese regime will be forced to enact political reform. Otherwise, a revolution will break out in Chinese society. For the Chinese regime, taking the initiative in promoting political reform would be more beneficial than being forced by revolution. Therefore, Taiwanese political circles and businesses need to be alert and keep a close eye on the situation to give themselves more flexibility.
If China initiates political reform, it will be able to speed up its move toward a democratic society and the calls for independence in Taiwan would then disappear on their own accord. Such a future is certainly possible for China, in view of today's international situation and the trends toward democracy. At the same time, Taiwan's democratic politics and liberal economy will also develop more speedily. Perhaps, after another 20 years, when politics, economics, democracy and freedom on the two sides may gradually converge, China's peaceful unification will become a reality, in complete conformity to the shared wishes of the majority of people across the Strait.
If China's despots remain impenetrably thick-headed, they will be forced to face social unrest, be overthrown by the public or overthrown by democratic forces inside China to make way for a new administration, thereby speeding up China's move toward a democratic society. A revolution will only delay China's unification.
The US' attitude
On the surface, the US does not publicly support Taiwanese independence, but privately backs Taipei in confronting Beijing in a bid to maintain the status quo. The US also incorporates Taiwan into its Far-Eastern strategic system and its security protection shield. For the 23 million people of Taiwan, this is a reliable way to protect themselves from the terrors and dangers of Chinese authoritarian rule.
During a recent visit to Taiwan, American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Richard Bush delivered a speech that stated that US-Taiwan relations are good and will become even better. The relations "are stronger now than any time in the last 50 years," Bush said. The government of US President George W. Bush has a five-point policy toward Taiwan. They are:
A. The US stresses the basic principle of peace and stands firm, unconditionally, on a peaceful resolution of the cross-strait issue.
B. The US will continue to follow the "one China" principle.
C. Taiwan as a democratic polity, is an important and undeniable fact. Any agreement related to the cross-strait issue must be acceptable to the Taiwanese people.
D. How to resolve the cross-strait issue depends on the two sides. The US encourages dialogue across the Strait, but will not act as a mediator.
E. The US supports Taiwan's participation in international organizations, such as the World Health Organization.
It is evident from this five-point policy that the US is inclined to maintain the status quo across the Strait -- protecting Taiwan from China's threats and preventing Taiwan from announcing independence. This is an international factor contributing to the difficulty of Taiwan independence. But, viewed from another angle, the ROC has now become an independent sovereign state on its traditional territory, Taiwan, having weathered all kinds of hardships. With a history of nearly 100 years, the ROC has not been destroyed by the alien Marxism-Leninism. Since it has become its own master and one of the world's democracies, why bother arguing about "Taiwan independence?" Moreover, why should it surrender itself to China by accepting the "one country, two systems" and live under the authoritarian rule by China's alien Marxist-Leninist CCP?
Conclusion
Unification will not come easily. Taiwanese independence would be a difficult proposition to institute. The ROC will likely live on. Some might ask: how long will we have to carry on with the no-war, no-peace, no-unification, no-independence situation?
We do not see this as a major problem; nor is it necassarily bad. The KMT firmly established the ROC on Taiwan since the 1950s. Today, President Chen of the DPP safeguards this historical tradition and continues to uphold the ROC so that it may survive and develop under circumstances of no war, no peace, no unification and no independence. A majority of Taiwanese also recognize the need to treasure and maintain the territorial sovereignty of the ROC. We estimate that the current situation will continue for 20 to 30 years before substantial changes occur in Chinese society. Only then will China's government lift the bans on political parties and restrictions on the press and an elected government begin to negotiate with its Taiwanese counterpart. In addition, China also needs 20 or 30 years to develop its economy, build up its society and develop a strong middle class and democratic trend.
A war should be avoided at all costs across the Taiwan Strait. The best way to resolve the Taiwan issue is through political reform, economic development and societal development. This will help promote an integration of the two sides in the greater Chinese economic sphere and then China's unification. China's unification is a historical process, not something the current generation can accomplish. But as long as the Taiwanese people work for the ROC's survival and development, peaceful unification with China will one day come.
Kam Yiu-yu (
Translated by Jackie Lin
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