On Jan 16. US President George W. Bush embarked on a three-nation visit to northeast Asia, the first stop of which was Japan. This was the first meeting of leaders from the US and Japan since a reshuffling in international politics took place following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US. It was also the first such exchange since Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi implemented a policy of currency devaluation. This article will analyze the political and economic significance of Bush's visit from an international, regional and domestic perspective.
On an international level, the main issue was Bush's "axis of evil" theory. Iraq, Iran and North Korea are among the world's major supporters of terrorism, thus Bush has named them as an "axis of evil." The US hopes to send troops to overthrow the governments of these nations in order to maintain international order and stability. At the same time the US hopes that Japan's self-defense forces can play an active role in Afghanistan. On the Japanese side, however, it is felt that, in the war on terrorism, evidence pointing to Iraq, Iran and North Korea's involvement in the Sept. 11 attacks is too flimsy. For the Japanese government, the question of how to convince the people that self-defense forces should be sent to support the US-led attack on Iraq has become a difficult one. In the present situation, Japan's active investment in and support for a US attack on the "axis of evil" would conflict with its foreign-policy interests.
On a regional level, the main issue involved a shift in US-Japan security policy. When the Bush administration first assumed office, its Asia-Pacific policy was to cooperate with Japan to contain China. The US-Japan Security Treaty has consistently treated China as the hypothetical enemy. Then came last year's EP-3 incident that caused US-China relations to hit rock bottom.
But after the Sept. 11 attacks, there was clearly a sudden shift in US foreign policy. China is the major provider of military support to the "axis of evil." The US needs to enlist the cooperation of the Chinese Communist Party in order to wage war on international
terrorism. Because of this, the basic tone of the US-Japan Security Treaty must be adjusted to target North Korea instead of China. But this would contravene Japan's efforts to hold talks with North Korea, South Korea's "Sunshine Policy," as well as stability in northeast Asia. If Japan changes the focus of US-Japan security cooperation without receiving Seoul's blessing, it will damage Japan's relations with both Koreas. Shifts in the US-Japan security policy and foreign policy run counter to Japan's regional interests.
On a domestic level, the main issue was Japan's devalution of the yen. The US economy saw a decade of prosperity before beginning to slide after 2000. Last year's terrorist attacks effectively kicked the US economy while it was down. By comparison, Japan has experienced a decade of economic stagnation.
After taking office, Koizumi proposed structural reforms in order to rescue Japan's economy. His currency policy discarded the financial policy previously used, adopting devaluation of the yen as a means to stimulate the competitiveness of Japanese exports. This devaluation policy, however, is clearly not conducive to the US economic recovery since it reduces the competitiveness of US products. Thus Bush hopes that Japan will be able to change its devaluation policy. Such a move, however, would be in conflict with Japan's economic interests.
In the trend of globalization, the areas of international politics, regional policy and domestic politics interconnect and influence one another. Analyzing past Japanese policy, one finds that the Japanese government, facing international pressure, will often compromise in order to reduce the effect of international pressure on regional stability and domestic politics and economics. This is the so-called "Japanese way." Thus, during Bush's visit to Japan, the key points for observers were how Japan will strengthen its security treaty with the US and how -- without hurting the US economy -- it will find the economic reform policy best suited to its interests.
Tsai Zheng-jia is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.
Translated by Scudder Smith
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