When we recall the malice, intolerance and intransigence that prompted China's missile threats at the time of Taiwan's first direct presidential election in 1996, the speed and relatively civilized nature of the Chinese leadership's response to the DPP's success in the Dec. 1 legislative elections, stand in stark contrast.
Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen (
Optimists argue that Beijing's sudden about-face simply reflects the adoption of a pragmatic approach toward the Chen administration following the DPP's victory in the December elections. The complex nature of cross-strait relations, however, demands a more prudent view.
Although Qian's statements contained an unprecedented degree of goodwill from Beijing toward the DPP, that goodwill came with strings attached and in fact simply represents a duplicitous strategy.
First, while signaling a softened line on Taiwan, Qian also emphasized that there is a distinction between the vast majority of DPP members and the small number of hardline Taiwan-independence activists. The theory that this goodwill gesture is a demonstration of the Chinese leadership's new-found pragmatism in dealing with the DPP is based purely on the fact that Beijing has undergone a gradual evolution in its attitude to the DPP, from sheer, unmitigated horror at Chen's election to a more sophisticated united front tactic, which is rather more in keeping with the Chinese Communist Party's traditions.
For those who understand the Chinese way of applying "divide and conquer" strategies, however, Beijing's incorporation of the "good cop, bad cop" tactic reflects neither a policy change, nor a sincere treatment of Chen and the DPP. In fact, Qian's differentiation between rank-and-file DPP mem-bers and what he described as the minority of hardline independence advocates was simply a way of categorizing the majority of advocates of the status-quo into two groups. The aim was no doubt to create an illusion that those occupying the political middle ground are against Taiwan independence. Such a psychological appeal is bound to fail because it overlooks the true state of public opinion in Taiwan.
When it comes to the essential question of Taiwan's sovereignty, Beijing remains steadfast. Qian's reiteration that Taiwan's acceptance of the "one China" principle is the precondition for a resumption of talks and his call for the two sides to pursue peaceful unification under the formula of "one country, two systems," demonstrates the real intention behind the "good cop" ruse.
The motivation behind Bei-jing's new posture is understandable. With the DPP's success in the legislative elections came the prize of becoming the largest party in the Legislative Yuan and therefore the end of the DPP administration's status as a minor-ity government. With this new mandate, Chen's political legitimacy was consolidated. Beijing had no choice but to recognize the new political reality in Taiwan.
The fact that Beijing has offered an olive branch to Chen does not mean, however, that it did so with sincerity, or even willingly. China's former strategy of allying with Taiwan's opposition to coun-ter the DPP has demonstrably failed. Beijing completely failed to anticipate both the DPP's victory last December and the increase in Chen's popularity.
The Chinese leadership has adjusted its strategy in order to further erode Chen's support. It aims to create an international illusion as well. By confusing the concept of peaceful unification with the international expectation of peaceful coexistence, Beijing gains leverage to promote its policy of "one country, two systems."
That product of authoritarian wishful thinking would not only violate the self-determination of the 23 million people of Taiwan but also insults Taiwan's democratic achievements.
Since both sides joined the WTO, Taipei has expressed its willingness to negotiate with Beijing on any issue under the WTO framework. Despite its effective refusal to deal with the Chen administration, China would lose all political leverage were it unilaterally to shut the door on bilateral talks.
That explains why Qian said that the entry of both countries into the WTO had provided new opportunities to develop cross-strait trade relations. He specifically said that political differences should not interfere with trade and that man-made obstacles which limit economic cooperation should be removed as soon as possible. Beijing has thrown the ball back into Taipei's court.
The official response in the first instance has been to welcome any words and deeds that are conducive to improvements in relations. Chen also called for the leaders of both sides to put aside political differences and concentrate on economics. Only through dialogue and contact can mutual trust be built.
No matter how Chen eventually responds to Beijing's new game in terms of policy reorientation, he must stick to his principle of safeguarding Taiwan's sovereignty, dignity and security.
This might be a window of opportunity for both Taipei and Beijing to resume talks, but we must always prepare for the worst when faced with our neighborhood bully.
Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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