Cross-strait relations have often been at crossroads over the last decade. Analysts in 1992 assumed that China and Taiwan had reached a consensus over the "one-China principle." In 1995, former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) visit to the US triggered the missile crisis. And in July 1999, China suspended talks with Taiwan when Lee defined ties between Taipei and Beijing as special "state-to-state" in nature.
Cross-strait relations are again at a crossroads -- for the Cabinet reshuffle will undoubtedly have an impact on foreign policy. The appointment of Eugene Chien (
Current foreign policy is basically split between the doves and hawks. Doves believe that making concessions to Beijing, such as the lifting of a 50-year ban on direct trade and investment with China, will remove the present stalemate.
They also assume that the admission of Taiwan and China to the WTO will lead to rapprochement talks, since the WTO rules and mechanisms encourage Beijing and Taipei to cooperate in the event of a trade dispute.
Yet, this is a myth. Whatever concessions Taipei makes, Bei-jing will not give up its insistence on the "one-China" principle as a pre-condition for resuming the dialogue. And whatever obligations China has under the WTO agreement, it will refuse to deal with Taipei on an equal footing.
A stalemate indeed is fine for Beijing. It can afford to block Taiwan's political efforts while still encouraging Taiwanese trade and investment. In the long-term, Taiwan's greater economic dependence may even give China a greater leverage on security and political issues
While the doves overestimate Beijing's capacity to compromise, the hawks on the other hand underestimate the dangers of their policy to counter the ambitions of China.
A report by the Rand Corporation think thank last November a said that Taiwan was developing a tactical ballistic missile capable of hitting targets in China (the purpose of such a weapon is to deter a first strike by Beijing).
The United Daily News (
Both initiatives are wrong. The few potential gains hardly match the high risks of such policies. In the case of the medium-range missiles, they expose Taiwan to the higher probability of an attack from China.
They also jeopardize the US-Taiwan special relationship. Washington could be less likely to assist Taiwan in a dispute against Beijing, by fear that a war provoked by Taipei could drag down the US in a war against its own interests.
In the case of the Indian-Taiwanese military cooperation, it merely puts China under the threat of a two-front war, harming any attempt of dialogue.
It also questions the foundations of US-Taiwan relations. The US could especially dread getting involved in a cross-strait nuclear war if Taipei one day acquires nuclear weapons from India to deter the nuclear threat from China.
Both the doves and hawks fail to deal with China's aggressive diplomacy. Beijing has learnt its lesson from the 1995 to 1996 missile crisis. Threats from China at the time did not affect Taiwan's domestic politics the way it was expected. On the contrary, they produced further national unity behind then-president Lee.
Over the past three years, China has changed its strategy. It no longer stresses military might as at the time of the missile crisis. It prefers to put more weight on diplomatic initiatives, though it is ready to use military force as an ultimate resort.
Beijing has multiplied diplomatic deals with Southeast Asian neighbors in the hope that such agreements in the long-term, by gradually isolating Taipei, could provide the regional okay for a takeover of Taiwan.
It is a mistake to believe that Beijing does not know how to deal with Chen's government because of the present political stalemate. Beijing is in fact delighted about the freezing of governmental exchanges across the Strait, because it can have enough time to build its net to catch Taiwan.
A bolder diplomacy is required for Taiwan to break Beijing's attempt at regional isolation. The emphasis should be put on multiplying official visits and building substantial relations with states having no diplomatic relations yet with Taipei. This could be implemented on the model of Lee's 1994 "holiday diplomacy."
One option could be to strengthen ties with Southeast Asian democracies. Building relations with South Korea and Japan should be a top priority, for they host the US fleet and military bases and are key countries in the network of US alliances. That would enable to make sure that Taiwan remains a vital US interest.
Another option could be to develop diplomatic ties with countries having territorial disputes with China: Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines. They would then support Taipei in the event of a cross-strait conflict, for they would know that after Taiwan they would be the next target.
Trung Latieule is a former editorial assistant at the International Herald Tribune and now a freelance reporter based in Taipei.
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