As we mark the Bush Administra-tion's first anniversary, US-East Asia relations, after a rough early start, appear to be on an upswing. The one exception is on the Korean Peninsula, where Pyongyang's refusal to take "yes" for an answer has resulted in a steady decline in relations with the US while adding some level of stress to otherwise improved US-South Korean relations as well.
Feelings of sympathy and support generated in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks against the US have no doubt helped this generally upward trend. As one US security specialist wisely noted, East Asian nations (like most others) cannot afford to have the US-led war on terrorism fail; the consequences for all would be too great. Nor can they afford to have the US campaign succeed without their perceived support, lest they run the risk of being deemed irrelevant in the emerging new world order.
National self-interest has thus drawn many states closer to the US, just as Washington's need for support in its global effort to combat terrorism has made it more mindful of maintaining friendships region-wide.
Good diplomacy has also helped. US President George W. Bush's visit to Shanghai last October for the annual APEC Leaders' Meeting provided an opportunity for some leaders, like Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) and Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir, to meet face-to-face with him for the first time. It also provided Bush an opportunity to build upon (or, in the case of South Korea, repair the damage caused by) earlier meetings. Most came away impressed and a bit more comfortable about Washington's commitment toward Asia.
Nowhere was this more evident than in the marked improvement in Sino-US relations. Jiang was delighted that Bush came to Shanghai despite the war in Afghanistan and was even more pleased when he agreed to pursue a "cooperative, constructive relationship" with China. Even though Bush added a third "c" -- "candid" -- to remind his Chinese interlocutors that differences remained and would not be swept under the table, Beijing seemed relieved that the old "strategic competitor" slogan had finally been replaced with a more positive mantra.
Washington seemed equally pleased when Jiang endorsed an anti-terrorism statement -- and otherwise offered support (with caveats) for the war on terrorism. This improved atmosphere should make it easier for both sides to deal with the many thorny issues that will continue to plague the relationship.
Foremost among these issues is Taiwan. Some eyebrows were raised in Washington when President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) announced his decision to boycott the APEC Leaders' Meeting (due to real and perceived Chinese insults) just as Bush was about to conduct his first meeting with Jiang. The Taiwan leadership has taken great pains since then, however, to assure Washington that it is not trying to undermine Sino-US relations and that the DPP's impressive gains in the Dec. 1 legislative elections and its apparent impending coalition with the Taiwan Solidarity Union will not lead to a more confrontational policy toward China.
Meanwhile, Taipei seems to have gotten over its initial fears that Washington would somehow cut a deal with Beijing that would swap China's support for the war on terrorism for a reduced US commitment (or even a halt in arms sales) to Taiwan.
The Bush administration's high expectations for the US-Japan alliance have also been met, if not exceeded, with US officials expressing great satisfaction with the "magnificent" Japanese support for the ongoing war on terrorism. Washington appears genuinely pleased with Tokyo's willingness to be a more active security partner, albeit with significant restrictions aimed at keeping military operations well within the limits of Japan's Peace Constitution. Washington has also applauded Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's willingness to more assertively defend Japan's coastline, as well as his efforts to mend fences with China and the Koreas after last summer's controversies (over textbooks and Koizumi's August visit to the Yasukuni Shrine).
On the economic front, Koizumi's reform efforts continue to receive strong support from the Bush administration. However, Washington's current patience while waiting for real results may start running thin, especially if the US economy does not begin to recover and long-standing trade tensions continue to fester.
US-South Korean relations remain on a positive track, although more work clearly needs to be done to shore up this important relationship. Bush had a good meeting with President Kim Dae-jung in Shanghai, although it failed to completely erase the memories of the considerably less successful first encounter between the two allies in Washington in March. It will take smoother diplomacy than Bush frequently exhibits to overcome growing complaints in Seoul that US hardline attitudes toward North Korea are primarily to blame for the current lack of progress in North-South relations. Such views are ill-conceived, but they persist and must be dealt with.
The reality is that Washington continues to stand behind its offer for dialogue "any time, any place" with Pyongyang and it is North Korea's insistence on preconditions -- the most preposterous being a demand that Bush denounce his current policies and return to the policies of the Clinton administration if it wants to talk to the North -- that continues to block US-North Korean cooperation.
Despite some rough going at the onset and some lingering problems, as Bush begins his second year in office and prepares for his first visit to Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing, US-East relations are clearly on the upswing. The challenge now will be to build upon this momentum, despite the inevitable ups and downs in Sino-US relations, continued concerns about Japan's economic recovery and North Korea's always unpredictable (and frequently counterproductive) behavior.
Ralph A. Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based non-profit research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
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