Tue, Jan 22, 2002 page8

• Editorial: Will a third try prove lucky?

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  Yu Shyi-kun will become premier next month, heading President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) third Cabinet. At a press conference yesterday to announce the first wave of ministerial appointments, Yu's very formal introduction of the appointees triggered laughter from the assembled reporters because all the names were familiar faces. Since the appointees are merely moving into new positions, a formal introduction appeared rather superfluous.

  This game of political musical chairs, however, does offer some clues as to the direction the new government will take. It is clear that Chen decided to reshuffle Cabinet portfolios with an eye toward the 2004 presidential election.

  Firstly, outgoing Premier Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄) oversaw a very difficult period for Chen's government in terms of domestic politics and the economy. The DPP is now in an improved position because of its successes in last month's legislative elections and increasing signs of the start of an economic recovery. Nevertheless, the KMT and the PFP are sure to remain combative. The new Cabinet line-up shows no sign of any movement toward the much touted "cross-party alliance for national stabiliza-tion," nor any assistance from former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) group, Taiwan Advocates (群策會).

  Chang, who hails from the DPP's Welfare State faction and Executive Yuan secretary-general Chiou I-jen (邱義仁), from the New Tide faction, are both withdrawing from the political frontline. Meanwhile, Chen's own people and those from the Justice Alliance faction are taking up important portfolios. By bringing his own people into the Cabinet, Chen is taking full responsibility for the government and paving the way for a re-election campaign. Chen is clearly moving toward a presidential system, at least in spirit, even though the Constitution has yet to be amended to allow for such a system.

  Secondly, the choices for the China policy and national security positions in Yu's Cabinet reflect Chen's emphasis on stability -- as well as his ambition to take control of the national security system, maintain stability across the Strait as well as a pro-US position and expand relations with other countries. Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is retaining her position, while Chief of the General Staff Tang Yao-ming (湯曜明) is becoming defense minister. Deputy secretary-general to the president Eugene Chien (簡又新) will become foreign minister.

  Thirdly, despite Chen's slogans about working on the economy, Yu has been unable to convince an experienced KMT member -- such as Chiang Ping-kun (江丙坤) or Paul Chiu (邱正雄) -- to serve a vice premier. As a result, outgoing Minister of Economic Affairs Lin Hsin-yi (林信義) is taking up the position while simultaneously moonlighting as chairman of the Council for Economic Planning and Development and chairman of the Consumer Protection Commission. Minister of Finance Yen Ching-chang (顏慶章) is keeping his job -- yet another sign that the DPP has been unable to alleviate its shortage of financial and economic talent. The line-up also indicates that the new Cabinet will continue implementing the consensus reached at the Economic Development Advisory Conference. Policy breakthroughs are unlikely.

  Chen's third Cabinet reshuffle shows his confidence in rolling out an "A-bian government" -- not only does he feel he can ignore the opposition's arm-twisting, he can also avoid sharing power with other DPP factions . For better or worse, Chen is staking his re-election in 2004 on the creation of a system of shared responsibility with Yu.

  Chen has said previously that "The day of election victory is the beginning of the re-election campaign." But the success of Chen's "rule by campaign" model depends on whether the new Cabinet can work its way through the political and economic predicaments that have befuddled his government and Taiwan for so long.
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