Thu, Jan 17, 2002 page8

• China's awkward diplomatic dance

  • By Austin Turner
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  Every morning in Beijing, a phalanx from the People's Liberation Army goosesteps out of its Forbidden City barracks onto Tiananmen Square. There, a three-man honor guard approaches the naked pole standing in front of Mao Zedong's (毛澤東) portrait, and after a throw and a hearty tug, the Chinese flag rises into the air. This ceremony is reenacted daily throughout China's schoolyards, the national anthem blaring out of loudspeakers while schoolchildren stand at attention. Soon, a similar ceremony will take place in Kabul.

  The Chinese Embassy closed its doors in Kabul in 1993 after factional fighting broke out, but the Beijing government is planning a timely reopening. A small contingency led by Zhang Min, China's former deputy representative to Afghanistan, arrived the day after US soldiers raised the American flag at the US Embassy.

  The swiftness of China's diplomatic deployment to Afghanistan signifies China's desire to check the US' growing influence in the region. While other countries are still getting into gear to send diplomatic representation to Kabul, China's normally bureaucratic leadership made an uncharacteristically quick decision to install their representatives.

  Beijing hawks are openly proclaiming that America's presence in Central Asia is a direct military flank on their Western border, with Taiwan waiting in the wings on the East. China's top brass is clearly concerned about losing any more potential political and military influence in the rebuilding process.

  China has lost face because of several political setbacks since the war on terrorism began. Earlier this year, the Chinese government scored a big political win after the formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Better known as the "Shanghai-Six," it's a group of central Asian countries dedicated to keeping Muslim fundamentalism at bay, comprised of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, and China.

  Following Sept. 11 and the Communist Party's typical infighting over China's response to the US-led coalition, China wound up playing tag-along in the region, grudgingly offering its support for the US' war on terrorism. Yet, Pakistan, China's neighbor and nuclear ally, opened its airspace soon after Sept. 11 to accommodate US fighters and bombers conducting sorties in Afghanistan. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan went further, offering their bases for American ground troops. Russia provided military experience and intelligence. There was little consideration for China's misgivings. In fact, the hawks in Beijing were startled to see how fast the region had decided to "Go West."

  Now that the war in Afghanistan is ending, China wants to be among the first nations to reestablish its influence in the country. Recently, Xinhua News Agency, the Chinese government's official mouthpiece, reported that China had helped Afghanistan build hospitals and irrigation projects before the country spiraled into conflict. Zhang stated that China wished to "actively participate" in rebuilding Afghanistan. They will likely put out promises of aid and assistance for new infrastructure projects to gain the confidence of the new Afghan government.

  Yet when President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) made his South American tour last year "in part, aimed at setting up an anti-US alliance -- he came off as a big talker but also as a bit of a cheapskate. Presently, China is rumored to be offering a paltry US$3 million for Afghan reconstruction. Once again, the communist party has the ambition, but cannot bring itself to spend hard cash on soft human needs.

  As for committing Chinese forces to Afghanistan, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue (章啟月) commented that peacekeeping operations should be authorized by the General Assembly of the UN. China, to date, has not sent any troops. If they did, at least their troops could pack light and pick up their gear in Afghanistan. Intelligence shows that the Chinese military sent AK-47s and SA-7 shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to the Taliban soon after the Sept. 11 attacks. It remains to be seen how the new interim Afghan government will accept Chinese assistance or react to China's call to quash terrorism (the Chinese code word for Muslim-militancy) given China's recently accelerated executions of Muslim Uighur separatists and harsh suppression of other Muslim minorities.

  Ultimately, China hopes to use its usual tools -- arms transfers, combined with virulent anti-American rhetoric -- to loosen US influence in the region. Central Asian governments, however, especially some members of the Shanghai-Six, may be reconsidering their alignment with their giant neighbor, as they begin to grow beyond their totalitarian upbringings to see potential economic and political benefits in cooperation with the West.

  The reality is that Afghanistan's interim leader Hamid Karzai already has strong ties to Western governments, to which he owes, in part, the freedom of his nation. If Afghanistan becomes a full-fledged democracy in the future, China would be further encircled by democratic regimes, currently six in total: India, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Seven, if Russia reforms. All are, for now, playing ball with the West, particularly with the US.

  When the US held its flag-raising ceremony in Kabul just before Christmas, many interim Afghan government leaders were present to watch the Stars and Stripes soar into the sky. China's flag raising ceremony will most likely be more somber and less well attended. A bugle might trumpet China's national anthem as the five star flag makes it way up the pole. China's biggest fear, however, is that nobody will be listening.

  Austin Turner is a government affairs consultant in Washington and Beijing.
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