Wed, Jan 16, 2002 page8

• Stiffening our cross-strait resolve

  • By Lin Wen-cheng 林文程
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  The stalemate in the cross-strait relationship has continued over the past year. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has proposed his cross-strait integration dictum (統合論) and initiated the "small three links." He has allowed Chinese journalists to visit Taiwan and convened the Economic Development Advisory Conference (EDAC) to propose the policy of "active opening and effective management" (積極開放, 有效管理) and repeatedly called on China to resume talks. But China has continued to turn a deaf ear.

  Taiwan will face some challenges in the coming year. First of all, accession to the WTO gives Taiwan a great opportunity to expand its international relations and eliminate many inconveniences caused by being left out of this United Nations of trade. Taiwanese industry in general, and agriculture in particular, however, will also face strong competition from China and other WTO members.

  Second, China has already entered the WTO and it is generally expected that China will continue to enjoy high economic growth. As China speeds up its economic reforms, a new China fever has broken out in Taiwan's industrial circles, furthering increasing Taiwanese dependency on Chinese markets, possibly undermining Taiwanese industry even further and thus making the unemployment problem all the more difficult to solve.

  Third, with both China and Taiwan joining the WTO, Taiwan must adjust its policy on direct links. Direct trade across the Strait will dramatically increase imports from China. Chinese capital and managers will also enter Taiwan. These are all unavoidable issues for Taiwan.

  China poses a challenge to Taiwan on both the economic and national security fronts. Cross-strait exchanges have become one factor tearing the Taiwanese national identity apart. Further trade and economic dependency on China could cause even more public confusion. Since China insists on not renouncing the use of force against Taiwan, achieving direct cross-strait economic interaction and mutual civil exchanges will increase Taiwan's national security burden. It will also increase economic and trade dependency on China and reduce Taiwan's ability to resist Chinese pressure. Taiwan must therefore make some sacrifices involving economics and trade on the one hand and national security on the other and try to strike a balance between them.

  Fortunately, developments in the international situation may not necessarily rebound totally to Taiwan's detriment. US-China relations have had their ups and downs in the past year. In the first half of the year, relations between the two deteriorated rapidly due to the new US government's adjustment of US China policy and the EP-3 spy plane incident. In the second half of the year, the terrorist attacks against the US led the two to cooperate and their two leaders took the opportunity offered by the APEC meeting in Shanghai to hold a summit, leading their relationship to improve once again. The anti-terrorist cooperation has not, however, completely changed the Bush administration's basic China strategy. It has instead caused the US containment line to extend toward Central Asia. In the future, once the US war on terrorism is over, US-Chinese friction over human rights, trade and other issues will resurface. The mutual trust between the US and Taiwan, however, has increased over the past year. Military cooperation and various other exchanges have become closer and more frequent, and Taiwan no longer feels pressured by the US.

  In fact, China will be facing serious challenges this year. WTO accession will have a serious economic and social impact on China. Huang Ju (黃菊), a member of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) Politburo, has already pointed out that WTO accession will be a serious challenge to CCP rule. Given this, China is unlikely to stir up trouble over the cross-strait issue, but possibilities for China to demonstrate flexibility on the issue will also be curtailed.

  Unless Taiwan is prepared to compromise on the sovereignty issue, the government should not hold out any hope of getting China back to the negotiation table by a show of goodwill. The stalemate is likely to continue. The Taiwan government should therefore take advantage of China's preoccupation with its own domestic politics, as well as the relatively beneficial international environment, to strengthen communication and cooperation between the ruling and opposition parties and create a harmonious political atmosphere, eliminating domestic pessimism and restoring public confidence in the government. As for cross-strait relations, the government should direct its efforts at creating an understanding -- if not a consensus -- between the opposition and ruling parties, and adopting a steady approach to coordinating WTO obligations and deregulating the necessary areas. The premise for this, though, is that national security must be guaranteed. The government needs to be capable of effective management. Never again must it make repeated unilateral concessions under the pressure of interest groups and a fawning attitude toward China.

  Lin Wen-cheng is director of the Institute of Mainland China Studies at National Sun Yat-sen University.

  Translated by Perry Svensson
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