After Taiwan's legislative and local government chief elections on Dec. 1, Hong Kong is actively preparing for its upcoming chief executive election. On Dec. 13, incumbent Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa (董建華), surrounded by local celebrities, officially announced his run for the post. Led by Fok Ying-tung (霍英東) -- nicknamed the "red fat cat" (紅色大肥貓) and a pro-China capitalist who is also one of the vice chairmen of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) -- those close to China exalted Tung and shouted slogans to show their support. Even some high school students were brought onto the stage to praise him. Tung's wife was so touched that she repeatedly wiped her tears away below the stage. Tung delivered his campaign speech in a passionate tone. Having been acculturated by Chinese political culture, the Hong Kong upstarts responded with a burst of applause whenever Tung's talk hit a high note. They applauded him 14 times during his 18-minute speech.
Since Chinese political heavyweights, including Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) himself, have repeatedly shown their support for Tung's re-election, no other candidate in Hong Kong is stupid enough to compete with him in the election. Hence, an 800-member election committee has formed and the farce of Tung's one-man show has begun. No wonder the chief executive confidently declared that his victory was in sight during his campaign speech. On the same day Tung gave the speech, Jiang, who was visiting Myanmar at that time, did not forget to back him from thousands of kilometers away, offering his support for Tung's re-election.
Negative economic growth first struck Hong Kong in 1999, only two years after China "liberated" the territory in 1997 and started to implement its "one country, two systems" (一國兩制). This year, Hong Kong turned recessionist again in the third and fourth quarters, and its fourth quarter GDP is expected to decline by 2.5 percent. The unemployment rate in October was as high as 5.5 percent. Due to the price drop in Hong Kong's real-estate market, about 100,000 middle-class citizens are now in debt. In fact, about 39 Hong Kong citizens declared bankruptcy in 1997, but the number jumped to 6,595 from January to September this year. To deal with a HK$60 billion deficit in its latest annual budget, the Hong Kong government has revealed its intentions to increase taxes. Even the luxurious Sun Tung Lok Shark's Fin Restaurant (新同樂), which opened in late 1960s when Hong Kong's economy was taking off, closed down on the last day of November. This also signifies that Hong Kong's golden years have come to an end.
Tung, who was re-elected into the chief executive seat under such embarrassing circumstances, had no choice but to apologize for his empty sentiments over the past few years in an effort to lower the public's dissatisfaction. After he apologized, some political commentators immediately tried to please him by praising the "innovativeness" of his talk. This clearly shows how arrogant he has been in the past as a result of the firm backing from China.
Beijing, along with the pro-China camp in Hong Kong, has exhausted all efforts in trying to build a better campaign environment for Tung.
For example, Jiang publicly lashed out in October at Hong Kong journalists for asking "simple" and "naive" questions about whether he supported Tung's re-election. To improve the chief executive's image, the government further tightened control over local media. After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, a radio show host at the government funded Hong Kong Radio portrayed Tung as Osama bin Laden, criticizing him for being able to remain in office, despite a continuous economic downturn simply because he was backed by the Northern Alliance -- Beijing. The comment triggered attacks from the pro-China camp right away. Even Tung himself called the show "low-class entertainment." As a result, pre-screening of the show's contents was mandated. Later, another one of the host's talk shows at Asia TV was canceled.
Moreover, in late November, Emily Lau (劉慧卿), a legislative councilor, criticized Tung during an interview with Asia TV. Since Lau is also the chairwoman of the Coalition Against Second Term (CAST, 反董連任大聯盟), pro-China newspapers have severely attacked both the television station and Lau. In other words, the pro-China camp is trying to silence any voice that opposes Tung.
On the other hand, before the delivery of Tung's speech, major corporations in Hong Kong repeatedly made favorable forecasts of the local real-estate market, claiming that prosperity would resume by the middle or the end of next year in an attempt to boost the public's morale. Beijing has also started a rumor that it may put HK$300 billion into the stock market to simulate the market. Besides, after China entered the WTO, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) said that Hong Kong would be given special privileges by China, although such treatment would be a clear violation of the WTO regulations. During a rally in support of the chief executive, a pro-China former legislative councilor even stole the image of Taiwan's former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) by praising Tung as Hong Kong's Moses.
Moreover, according to an opinion poll, conducted in November by Hong Kong Policy Research Institute -- headed by Paul Yip (葉國華), the chief executive's special adviser -- Tung's support ratings have quickly risen from 79.3 percent in the previous month to 89.9 percent. However, another opinion poll, conducted by the University of Hong Kong at the same time, showed that his support ratings actually rose from 49.3 percent to 49.7 percent. Not only was the rise insignificant, but it was also a failing grade for Tung.
Tung will undoubtedly remain in office even without the above flatteries and tricks. Why must the pro-China camp act so disgracefully? Thus, as Lau mentioned in a recently published article, "Taiwan's democracy has yielded positive results while Hong Kong's democracy is going nowhere. No wonder Taiwanese people have refused to accept the so-called `Hong Kong model.'"
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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