The US is on a high state of alert after mail containing anthrax spores has been found throughout the nation. Judging from the timing and method of these attacks, they were all thoroughly planned. Although anthrax is unlikely to cause widespread infections or deaths -- given the sound sanitation and medical systems in the US -- the terrible effects of the attacks cannot be ignored.
First, in terms of the timing, suspicious envelopes containing powdery substances started to be found in October. The Christmas holiday is quickly approaching, a time when greeting cards are sent in large numbers by individuals and companies. Hence, it will appear less than suspicious if someone sends large amounts of mail to unspecified receivers.
The public may not be alert enough when receiving such mail. In addition, postal security checks may be insufficient to counter the threat at a time when the total amount of mail increases dramatically. Indeed, the largest monthly volume of mail is delivered between the Thanksgiving and Christmas, giving terrorists the most tempting opportunity to disrupt the lives of Americans.
At the same time, there is no legal penalty for terrorists who adopt the tactic of "making a feint to the east while attacking in the west" (聲東擊西), as the old Chinese saying goes, by sending out greeting cards containing harmless powder. This, unfortunately, will raise public anxiety and waste resources on the prevention of mock terrorist attacks.
The mailing of cards to friends, family and business associates at Christmas time is an integral part of Western culture. It would be a great victory for the terrorists if that tradition is shaken by fears of a bioterrorist attack. It might be added that Muslims do not celebrate Christmas and seldom send Christmas cards. It would therefore be relatively easy for the terrorists to limit the "scope of the attack (
With the increasing number of anthrax-letter false-alarms, biochemical laboratories all over the US are being kept busy, to such an extent that they may be unable to handle the situation if an actual germ attack begins.
Another lesson of the biochemical attack is that the terrorists' actions will not be in the traditional pattern familiar to Western countries. Palestinian guerrillas and Israeli troops, for example, have never attacked each other with biological weapons during their decades-long conflict -- because they know that bacteria and viruses are infectious to humans regardless of race. If an infectious disease broke out, those most badly affected would perhaps be the Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Obviously, the biochemical threat facing the US has broken the above rule. In addition, training for war readiness will be seriously affected since the US National Guard are needed to help with airport security checks and other missions.
As a result, the anthrax attacks have caused public panic at almost zero cost. They could also facilitate a possible large-scale biochemical attack later. If the US fails to obtain the desired results by bombing, which has caused injuries to and deaths of civilians in Afghanistan, the opposition of allies and the Islamic World to the military operations will gradually rise. The Bush administration will therefore face significant challenges if the US is unable to put quick end to the anthrax scare.
Chang Kou-cheng is deputy director of the DPP's Chinese Affairs Department.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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