On the eve of the APEC meeting, a noted rising publication in Beijing, The Economic Observer (
The title was an appropriate description of Chinese expectations for this APEC meeting. Even though APEC is a forum for discussing economic issues, the key issue for the Chinese is talks with the US president.
The US-China relationship has always treated politics and economics as indivisible, and so any talks between the two will involve their respective international strategic positions and national interests.
At this moment in unpredictable international relations, China is placing even greater hopes on a meeting with US President George W. Bush. The eagerness to meet face to face can be seen in the fact that, since Sept. 11, the Chinese media have continually stressed the point that Bush's China itinerary must not change.
This eagerness did not, however, originate on Sept. 11. If that incident had never occurred, the main focus of China's talks with Bush would have been on US security strategies in Asia.
After Bush was sworn in, his tough attitude toward China created a Chinese reaction. This year, the US-China plane incident and the deployment of the missile defense system has increased Chinese doubts toward the US, and led to a deadlock in relations.
The anti-terrorism agenda has become the central issue since the Sept. 11 incident, and it must replace the possibly more contentious issue in US-China relations, the missile defense system. With the focus on anti-terrorism, China will have more room for negotiation.
First, Afghanistan borders on China, and the US will need Chinese intelligence when taking retaliatory action. Second, following the Tiananmen incident in 1989, the US has consistently prohibited arms sales to the Chinese Communist Party. Over several months, the US has once again implemented sanctions on China because of its violation of last year's November agreement with the Clinton administration not to sell missile technology to Pakistan. Pakistan, however, has become an important US ally in its retaliatory actions against Afghanistan, and it is very possible that the US will now agree. Third, with the US and China allied, China will be able to take advantage of this opportunity to strike at the independence activists in Xinjiang who cooperate with Afghan terrorists, and they may use this opportunity to demand that the US lift its ban on arms sales to China. If this happens, how will it affect US arms sales to Taiwan?
The Taiwan issue will also be an issue, especially now that the US needs foreign support for its dealings with terrorism. Before going to China, Bush had already reiterated support for one China. This is the US president's standard response to the Taiwan question, and Taiwan's position at this moment has not yet been shaken.
For Taiwan, however, it is worth continuing to pay attention to strategic and tactical aspects of the US-China relationship. The US retaliation against Afghanistan is tactical. The real meaning of this war lies in the US extending the front to create a new global strategy. Taiwan should pay attention to what the US-China relationship resulting from this process will be. In the unpredictable and changing international political arena, today's enemy may be tomorrow's friend. The issue most worthy of Taiwan's consideration may be whether it should diversify its arms purchases.
Hsu Tung-ming is a freelance writer based in Beijing.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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