Taiwan has endured a wretched year, despite the early exhilaration (in some circles, at least) that greeted the election of the first opposition candidate to Taiwan's presidency in March of last year. Nothing seems to have gone right since. To those steeped in Chinese tradition, the seemingly never-ending parade of typhoons, floods, earthquakes, fires, landslides and offshore oil spills that Taiwan has borne of late are omens symbolizing the loss of the Mandate of Heaven -- which means that the ultimate "Powers That Be" have determined that the current regime is unfit to rule.
On the economic front things are abysmal. Previously, Taiwan congratulated itself for avoiding the Asian financial crisis of 1997. It is now getting its comeuppance. Unemployment for June surpassed 4.5 percent, something unthinkable in this formerly booming economy, which imported tens of thousands of workers over the past decade to remedy a perceived permanent labor shortfall. GNP growth rates will be hard pressed to meet the original 5 percent forecast. Growth in the first quarter just squeaked past 1 percent. The once stratospheric stock market has been in free fall while the New Taiwan dollar has depreciated to rates not seen for decades.
Meanwhile, private businesses are moving across the Taiwan Strait to China. This includes world-leading telecommunications and IT firms, whose owners are shuttering their plants at home and settling down -- often with their families -- in the booming region around Shanghai. Naturally, Beijing is pleased at gaining this wedge between Taiwanese business and Taiwan's government, which preaches a "go slow, be patient" policy toward the mainland out of fear that Taiwan's economy may become dependent on its much larger enemy.
But things are not completely bleak. America's Bush administration signaled a change from the Clinton administration which it criticized as too soft on China and insufficiently committed to Taiwan's security. This was backed up by a pledge to sell Taiwan some long sought after advanced weapons and to, "do whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan. Nonetheless, there is a pervasive malaise in Taiwan which shows no signs of dissipating soon.
There is enough blame to go around for Taiwan's sorry state of affairs. Little doubt exists that the peaceful transfer of power last year to President Chen Shui-bian (
The vanquished party, the Kuomintang, monopolized political power in Taiwan from the 1940s until the late 1980s through a mix of martial law, Leninist organizational skills and phenomenal wealth. But the KMT was as ill-prepared for opposition as the DPP was for governing. Its leaders and legislators adopted a stance of obstructionism for its own sake and, reveling in the DPP's errors, offer no constructive policies of their own. The KMT has weak leadership and many of its members have flooded to the People First Party of former KMT Secretary-General (and presidential runner-up) James Soong (宋楚瑜). Now, as the KMT holds its 16th Party Congress, yet another group of disaffected KMT members is rallying around former president and former KMT Chairman Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) who has indicated he supports his successor as president more than he supports his hand-picked successor as party leader!
All of this is prelude to the elections for the Legislative Yuan to be held Dec. 1. The KMT and its splinter groups have discussed uniting behind jointly nominated candidates but cannot agree (so far) on who to put forward. No fresh policy proposals have been floated either to rescue the economy (a cross-party group is trying to devise solutions) or to deal with the mainland.
With Beijing hosting the 2008 Summer Olympics, Taiwan may get seven years of breathing room to sort out its political mess: conventional wisdom holds that China will not risk a boycott of the Games by taking military action against Taiwan. Ironically, the mainland authorities trumpet their Olympic victory as a confirmation of China's stance on Taiwan and of its rise as a global player. With its recent friendship treaty with Russia, improving relations with America and an economy growing at around 8 percent per year, China's leaders publicly exude confidence, despite a huge number of festering social and political problems.
Moreover, in dealing with Taiwan, China's rulers believe that time is on their side. While the December elections should consolidate Taiwan's democratic transition, the fissiparous tendencies roiling Taiwan will likely stiffen the Chinese leadership's conviction that democracy -- - with its competing parties, free speech, and vibrant civil society -- equals chaos. The fact that leaders of Taiwan's opposition parties, like its capitalists, now flock to Beijing to build a united front with the communists against their elected leaders at home, fuels the smugness of China's rulers.
The significance of Taiwan's democratization extends beyond the nation to neighbors such as China, Singapore and Malaysia, whose authoritarian leaders promote the idea that "Asian values" are not conducive to Western-style democracy. Imagine the signal that will be sent if the politicians in Taiwan who oversaw its democratic transition prove them right.
Tom Gold is a professor of Sociology at the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
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