Thu, Oct 11, 2001 page8

• Rebuilding Central Asia is a major task ahead

  • By Joseph Wu 吳釗燮
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  In the early hours of Oct. 8, the US and Britain launched ferocious attacks against the Taliban government of Afghanistan and Osama bin Laden's terrorist group. The first war of the century, as termed by US President George W. Bush, had officially begun.

  To most people, the US will undoubtedly achieve great success and enjoy an upper hand in the preliminary stage of this war.

  In addition to these air strikes, however, many other issues require in-depth discussion, so that a full understanding may be gained of the possible changes in Central Asia and the challenges facing the US after the war.

  Afghanistan is a unique country in which many independent tribal societies divide a land carved by a mountainous terrain.

  Since King Mohammad Zaher Shah was overthrown in 1973, Afghanistan has experienced invasion by the former Soviet Union, resistance against that invasion, and virtually endless civil wars, creating as many as 4 million innocent refugees.

  Besides the sale of opium to the West, virtually no other important economic activities take place in the country, which relies on aid from foreign countries.

  Of course, as usual, hopeless poverty has nurtured extremism. In terms of the problems confronting Afghanistan, therefore, overthrowing the Taliban government and Osama bin Laden's groups is only the first step. The real problems will come after that.

  To deal with the problems of Afghanistan, the US government has already stated that a ruling alliance formed by various factions within the country may be established after the war. King Mohammad Zaher Shah who has been in exile overseas for years may become the leader.

  A prerequisite to political stability, however, is economic reconstruction. To accomplish that, in addition to non-stop aid from the US and the UN, the participation of nearby countries and the assurance of peace through a regional alliance are also needed. Moreover, after the war, the US should avoid stationing troops in Central Asia on a permanent basis, in order not to give excuse to the extremists for making more trouble.

  At the same time, however, the US must secure the rights to use the military bases of certain key countries, in order to be prepared in times of need.

  The situation should be somewhat similar to the anti-Iraq alliance forged by former US president George Bush during the Persian Gulf War.

  After that war, Bush senior pushed strongly for peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians to counter the fundamentalist trend in the Islamic world. Surely his son will do the same.

  The regional alliance will be established to stabilize the situation within Afghanistan and the surrounding countries.

  Its members must therefore have deep ties with Afghanistan, belong to the same Islamic faction, and have no opposing economic interests.

  In view of these considerations, members of this alliance must include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

  The wealth of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both with strong ties to Afghanistan, should be sufficient to bear the primary responsibility of "supporting" Afghanistan financially.

  Pakistan must be a participating member. Otherwise, if the Afghan refugees and the extremists of Pakistan join forces, the region will have no hope for peace. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have rich petroleum and natural gas resources. If oil and gas pipes are constructed running through Afghanistan to the Indian Ocean, so that the primary natural resources of Central Asia can reach consuming countries, Afghan finances will improve vastly.

  Whether the US policy is limited to the establishment of an interim regional alliance or arrangement or something more, however, is too early to say. If the diplomatic policies of the senior Bush's team are anything to go by, the US may strengthen the regional alliance through the UN. The US is likely, however, to try to exclude China and Russia, so that the US and major European and Middle-Eastern countries will be able to spearhead the alliance. To accomplish that, the UN mechanism cannot be invoked. As for whether a "Central Asia Treaty Organization" similar to NATO might be established, at present that is not on the agenda of the Bush administration.

  The US has deployed altogether five aircraft carrier groups for the war. To fight against an impoverished small country and a terrorist group, this is obviously excessive.

  Anyone who sees this war as intending to hit only bin Laden and the Taliban government obviously doesn't realize the true nature of this war. Viewing this war from the perspective of a new political order in the Central Asian region and a new US global strategy would make a lot more sense.

  Joseph Wu is the deputy director of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.
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