Between the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the US and the beginning of US and British retaliatory strikes against Afghanistan on Sunday night, two major causes of unease for Taiwan have developed. The first is whether the US will bargain away Taiwan's interests in exchange for China's cooperation in its fight against terrorism. The second is whether China will take advantage of the chaos of war and make some foolish military move against Taiwan with the massive number of PLA troops deployed along its southeastern coastline, and 350 or so missiles aimed at Taiwan?
In a Washington Post article published on Sunday, US columnist George F. Will quoted Richard Russell, a professor at the US National Defense Academy, who said China could attack Taiwan with tactical nuclear weapons and chemical weapons, so as to quickly bring the country to its knees. Certainly, Russell's hypothesis cannot be dismissed as an impossible daydream, especially in an era when even a civilian aircraft can be used as a bomb to bring down the New York World Trade Center.
US State Department and national security officials have reassured Taiwan time and again over the past month that the US would not sacrifice Taiwan's interests in exchange for China's cooperation. US Secretary of State Colin Powell has also publicly reiterated this stance in recent days. However, for the people of Taiwan, the Chinese military threat is just as ubiquitous as the terrorist threat of Osama bin Laden et al across the Western world. Without adequate security guarantees, the people of Taiwan can never feel safe.
As to whether or not China will launch a surprise attack on Taiwan as envisioned by Russell, this newspaper believes it safe to answer in the negative. That's because China now has too many domestic problems on its plate. Also, Shanghai is hosting the APEC leaders' summit later this month and Beijing is hosting the summer Olympic Games seven years from now. These will not only keep Beijing busy but also necessitate international support. It is not likely that China will put itself in trouble by launching an attack on Taiwan at this point and triggering international sanctions.
That being said, China does not really need to do the real fighting. All it needs to do is to mobilize the pro-China people in Taiwan to serve as its mouthpieces, take full advantage of Taiwan's pluralistic, democratic society and its freedom of speech to create some noise, and sow discord and confusion among the public.
That explains the recent wave of anti-US rhetoric in Taiwan. It has been instigated by the pro-China media following Beijing's agenda of opposing the US for China's nationalistic purposes. These people hardly represent Taiwan. They view issues from Beijing's perspective and measure them in terms of Beijing's interests. Their true purpose is only to create a confusion of values and to push Taiwan closer to Beijing's side.
What Taiwan needs to be worried about today is not so much whether the US will sell out Taiwan, or whether China will launch a surprise attack. Rather, the real worry is in the noise and confusion unleashed by Beijing's stooges in Taiwan. If the people of Taiwan do not have enough confidence or cannot clearly distinguish between friend and foe, if they can be easily confused by baseless rumors, if Taiwan tends to give in even without China starting a fight, then more advanced weapons and more assurances from allies won't help. It's time for the people of Taiwan to join hands to make it through the difficult times.
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