US SPECIAL FORCES are now operating in Afghanistan trying to capture Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in the Sept 11 attacks on New York and Washington. In exercising its inherent right of self-defense, the US may also attack the terrorist training camps and the Taliban leadership to discourage other states which have harbored terrorist groups from continuing to do so.
But President George W. Bush must be careful in expanding the above limited objectives, for example, to include the overthrow of the Taliban. Virtually all Taliban leaders have studied in madrasahs (seminaries for the training of Islamic clergy) in Pakistan. These madrasahs and the political parties with which they are affiliated are a political force in Pakistan. The Taliban also receive support from Pakistani traders who are engaged in the transit and drug trade.
Because of these close links, the overthrow of the Taliban could further destabilize Pakistan, a nation which is already unstable.
Between 1994 and 1999 some 80,000 to 100,000 Pakistanis trained and fought in Afghanistan. These battle-hardened militants now threaten Pakistan's own stability. Due to its conflict with India over Kashmir, Pakistan has encouraged the guerilla activities of religious zealots there.
As a result, Islamist organizations have grown powerful in Pakistan. Sectarian factionalism already exists in the Pakistani military. Many mid-level officers share the zeal of the Islamic fundamentalists. Pakistan has already suffered four military coups. The country faces endemic political and economic problems. If Pakistan was to collapse, its nuclear arsenal could become vulnerable to terrorists. The Bush team needs to be wary of the consequences of its decisions.
President Bush is correct in envisioning a long-term, relentless, multi-pronged campaign to eradicate terrorists who could in the future resort to weapons of mass destruction: chemical, biological and nuclear.
This is a daunting task, given the US' long borders and open society and the need to preserve the unity and resolve we see today among Americans from all walks of life over an extended period of years and even decades. Because what happens on distant alien soil could affect the security of its homeland, the US has no choice but to pay heed to foreign affairs and manage them in such a way as to reduce or eliminate the root causes of terrorism.
In a recent interview with the Washington Times, Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak was asked about the all-consuming hatred of the US that motivated the Sept. 11 attacks. Mubarak said it came from a "feeling of injustice ... Muslims everywhere see America giving arms to the Israelis to kill Muslims ... Muslims see the [US] media taking the side of Israel, whatever it does .... Go to all ... moderate states in the region, from Jordan to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Their leaders have told me that their streets are on the verge of boiling over."
The US needs to review its position on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. It is in the US' national interest to find the Palestinians a viable home. A US policy which is more sensitive to the Palestinians' plight will go a long way toward reducing the Muslim world's animosity towards the US.
The post-Cold War world is full of potential threats to the US' national security. Global terrorism is just one type of threat. The US must not forget potential missile attacks by rogue states, due to the proliferation of missile and nuclear weapon technology. China is modernizing its armed forces at a rapid pace with the focused aim of conquering Taiwan, before the US can arrive on the scene.
China is building and testing mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) which can reach the US. It is also building multiple, miniature nuclear warheads. Once sufficient MIRVed (ICBMs)armed with multiple, independently re-targetable re-entry vehicles -- are targeted on the US and Japan, China can be expected to ask the US to withdraw its troops from East Asia.
If the US complies, Japan could well be compelled to become a protectorate of the People's Republic of China, offering its financial and technological resources in tribute to the new hegemon. Some time down the road, the US may need to defend its homeland against the ultimate terrorist attack, a nuclear Pearl Harbor. The US needs to build up its military capacity so that it can meet multiple crises at the same time. Civil defense against terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction should also be implemented.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.
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