As a result of former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) intervention, the year-end election has gained additional elements of uncertainty. The battle is no longer just between the two major parties, the KMT and DPP, or between the DPP and the Pan-blue camp. Rather, it has now become a battle between the Pan-blue camp and the Pan-green camp. The presence of independent candidates makes things even more unpredictable.
Currently, this much is known: the relationship between the DPP and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) may be somewhat tense, but former president Lee Teng-hui and President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) are on the same team. Lee has explicitly stated that the TSU was established to help Chen secure political stability. Between Lee and Chen at least, there exists a mutual understanding to cooperate.
In contrast, Lee's moves have become a matter for grave concern to the KMT. The main targets of Lee's offensive are the KMT and its chairman, Lien Chan (連戰), leaving the KMT no choice but to make counterattacks. The KMT had intended to head the Pan-blue camp, in order to attack the DPP with the joint might of three opposition parties, the KMT, PFP, and New Party. The situation, however, has developed beyond KMT control. Now, it has first to deal with the devastating blows struck by Lee, while at the same time leaving itself a free hand to deal with the DPP. The KMT is being cornered.
The KMT's predicted inability to maintain its legislative majority after the year-end election has already placed it at a disadvantage. To the KMT the battle is being fought to preserve its status as the biggest party in the Legislative Yuan. In other words, the year-end election is, to the KMT, a two-horse race between it and the DPP for the most seats in the legislature. The problem is that the DPP is already the ruling party. The KMT won't necessarily get to head the cabinet, even if it garners the most seats in the legislature. The KMT's battle for survival is no less risky than that of the New Party. These facts together highlight the strategic significance of the TSU.
Lee's appeal for "85 seats [for the DPP] and 35 seats [for the TSU]" to give the Pan-green camp a legislative majority and his proposal for the formation of a Japanese LDP-type of majority party all point to what is likely to happen after the election. Right now, however, Lee, the TSU, and the DPP are already at battle stations ready to fire. Not only is the TSU helping out with the offensive maneuvering, it is also helping the DPP with the defensive line. In this regard, the entire ball game has changed from the time when it involved Pan-blue camp's three in one against the DPP. Now the DPP and the PFP are ganging up on the KMT instead. The year-end election is essentially a show-down between the KMT and the DPP.
Chin Heng-wei is the editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly.
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