Typhoon Nari broke many meteorological records as it hit Taiwan. Unfortunately, the records are not exciting or cheerful. They have caused enormous loss of property and even lives. If we examine Taiwan's meteorological data over the past 100 years and trace the dates of top three highest "one-day rainfall" at each local weather station, we find these records mostly appeared after 1955. Their frequency has risen, reaching a climax between 1995 and now. That being so, the records set by Typhoon Nari are understandable and the phenomenon tallies with today's climatic trends, as extreme weather changes may occur more frequently.
If we analyze Taiwan's average annual rainfall and the number of raining hours, however, the average number of raining hours have clearly decreased while the average annual rainfall has no significant changes. Take the nation's "rainy city," Keelung City, for example. It seldom rains in Keelung nowadays. It is even facing a water shortage this summer. The fact is: the annual rainfall remains the same because powerful typhoons such as Toraji and Nari usually bring great amounts of precipitation in a short time. Therefore, our real challenge actually lies in the highly rising "rainfall intensity."
With such great amounts of rainfall in a short time -- accompanied by the rising tide and sea inundation -- no wonder drainage systems in urban areas, as well as riverbanks equipped with water pumps, failed to function appropriately this time. Such massive rainfall was also unbearable for the forests, soil and rivers in mountain areas, triggering mudslides more frequently.
Typhoon Nari taught us a lesson. It let us experience the power of climatic change. Unlike most other typhoons, Typhoon Nari was formed over the Pacific Ocean to the east of Taiwan and hovered back and forth for a long time. After reaching the island and becoming a tropical storm, it absorbed vapor from the Taiwan Strait and was therefore able to stay over the island while maintaining its strength. Especially, it followed a counterclockwise direction, rampaging from northern to central Taiwan. While breaking away from the traditional typhoon path, it also broke records of damage and losses islandwide.
In fact, both the government and the public heightened weather alertness after they experienced Typhoon Herb in 1997 and plenty of other natural disasters that hammered Taiwan. But record-breaking rainfalls and strange weather conditions, such as Typhoon Nari and Typhoon Herb, have recurred.
River embankments constructed on the basis of past rainfall intensity records are no longer reliable. According to the experience in recent years, one should certainly avoid living in areas close to slopes and rivers or along the coast.
One should also avoid living or installing too many facilities, such as power distribution equipment, in basements. On the government's part, it should avoid investing too much funds in areas prone to disasters. Instead, it should concentrate its funds on prevention work in more important areas. Moreover, hydraulic engineers should realize the present trend of climate change and come up with creative ideas and applicable prevention facilities.
Finally, according to the UN Climate Change Report, growing global warming is expected, and frequent climate changes may affect humanity significantly. Under such trends, the possible impact on the nation's disaster prevention system is obvious. We cannot expect the nation's disaster prevention system to be dramatically improved in a short time. However, it is hoped that system adjustments be hastened in order to meet our new needs.
Liu Chung-ming is a professor of atmospheric sciences, National Taiwan University.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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