The terrorist attacks against the US this week have shaken the entire world. From Taiwan's perspective, we should be closely monitoring any possible developments.
First, an anti-terrorism war has been launched. Tuesday's attack was not just any terrorist assault. It was the product of a long period of planning. It also destroyed major symbols of American power -- the World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon.
This war against terrorism will become a war without an identifiable battleground. The US will first find the culprits, then identify the country or countries that served as accomplices. Then there will be a series of retaliations and sanctions. Such retaliation will not end with the firing of missiles and the destruction of a few buildings. It will involve prolonged periods of hunting, punishment and retaliation.
The entire process will likely take quite some time. In particular, economic and military sanctions against the countries that assisted the terrorists could last several years. Such actions can be described as an "asymmetric war." High technology cannot stop the type of horrible suicidal attacks the world has just witnessed. "National security" will have to be redefined.
As for the impact on Sino-US relations, one can foresee that the relationship will shortly be characterized by a great deal of interaction. Military antagonism between the two will not make headlines for a while. The Asian Pacific region will be able to focus on economic and trade issues.
Just like a giant who has been stabbed in the back, the US needs the continued support and cooperation of its allies, as well as Russia and China in order to declare war on terrorism.
Naturally, the US will become more cautious in its China policy and East Asian strategy. As for US Taiwan policy, there shouldn't be much change. But, in the short term, the submarines that the US has decided to sell to Taiwan may not be be built.
Middle-eastern terrorism and extremism has become the US' number one enemy. While, in the long run, the standoff between the US and China for regional domination will remain un-changed. The US not only needs China to support its anti-terrorism efforts, but will also be unwilling to trigger another conflict in East Asia. An anti-illegal-immigrant nationalism will rise in the US, possibly escalating into an anti-foreigner sentiment.
Will there be an impact on the US mid- and long-term regional security strategy?
The myth that the US is invulnerable to outside attack has crumbled alongside the World Trade Center's buildings. This may shake the American people's support for their government's international strategies, under which a cowboy attitude overseas has caused the women and children at home to suffer. The already ambiguous global and regional strategies will therefore may need to be revised.
The Bush administration will head for political and military pragmatism with more certainty than ever. It may turn from offensive pragmatism to defensive pragmatism. In fact, the US may even adopt policies of non-interference, neutrality, or even withdrawal in certain regions.
This won't be the traditional isolationism of the US, but an effort to conserve its great military strength. There will be a period of inaction until the US has no choice but to get involved in some regional conflict and commit to an enormous military campaign. Doing so will not only help the US to have a decisive impact, but may also allow it to direct the political direction of the region afterward.
In any event, please fasten your seat belt, because the road is about to get rough.
Philip Yang is an associate professor of political science at the National Taiwan University.
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