Taiwan seems to be at a cross-roads in the unification-independence debate with society quite split over what route to take. The two ideologically-opposed camps have presented their totally conflicting views on Taiwan's future both in the printed media and on call-in shows on television.
It appears, however, that people in Taiwan seldom consider the potential variables in the Taiwan-China relationship from an angle rather different from the independence versus unification question, namely in terms of the three major, indeed unprecedented, crises that China may face in the coming decade. Just as Taiwan and Hong Kong were able narrowly to escape China's political, cultural and economic catastrophes during the years 1958 to 1976, Taiwan's leaders must now make sure that the nation will continue to avoid being affected by disaster in China. And if possible, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore should also help the Chinese people to weather these crises.
The first crisis that China will face will result from the transformation of its political system, along with its continued economic growth. China's current politico-economic environment greatly resembles that of late-19th century, pre-revolutionary Russia. In the mid-19th century, as modern trends in Western thought flooded Slavic countries and serfs began to be emancipated, on the surface it seemed that Russia was moving towards Europeanization. But instead, Russian society retained a rigid, corrupt autocracy that was never baptized into the Western democratic thought of the 17th and 18th centuries, or the ideas of the French Revolution. It was this that gave rise to the Bolshevik revolution and the rise of Marxist-Leninist Communism and, in the end, Russia's failure to become Europeanized. Anyone visiting Moscow and St. Petersburg would certainly be incredibly moved by witnessing the historical remains of Russia's pre-revolutionary civilization. Even more would one feel pity for the Russian people. Who would have imagined that Russia's 19th century revolutionary environment would again appear after Mikhail Gorbachev's proclamation of reform and openness?
The biggest crisis facing China is similar to this. History shows that when an autocratic, corrupt, communist political system exists amid an environment of economic reform and openness, a revolution is inevitable. My reason for predicting that China will be faced with a crisis in about a decade from now is actually rooted in the fact that in the past 10 to 20 years, nearly 400,000 Chinese students have studied in either Europe or the US. These students, who have been exposed to modern trends of thought, are currently mostly between 40 and 50 years old. Ten years from now, they will move toward reform platforms. Along with advancements in technology, living conditions and information, the speed of change within this group has increased exponentially.
Looking back at history, if a few communist students on work-study programs in France could succeed in overthrowing the KMT, then the potentially explosive force of Chinese students currently overseas cannot be overlooked. Of course we hope to see their strength grow to the point that it can advance democratic reforms within China, rather than repeat the ravages of the Bolsheviks in Russia.
The second major crisis facing China is one of economics. Under the reform policies of Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), China implemented an economic open-door policy that began in Shenzhen and gradually moved up to Shanghai. Moving on in that direction allowed China to develop rapidly, but also widened the standard-of-living gap between eastern and western provinces. In particular, the incomes and education received by farmers living in China's interior and southwest were vastly different from those in coastal areas and Beijing.
I cannot imagine that joining the WTO will have any effect on the city-country gap, or social transformation within China, but the implementation of a free trade system will undoubtedly exacerbate the crisis of immigration for areas throughout southeast China, and cause increasing social unrest.
Whether or not the communist regime's political power, which came from the peasant farmers, will die in the hands of the peasantry, and whether the economic policy for the interior that China is fervently promoting will succeed, are key questions. If current policy can be steadily implemented for a decade or two, perhaps this crisis can be avoided.
The third potential crisis -- the one that I least want to see occur -- is war in the Taiwan Strait or between the US and China. As its economy continues to expand, so will China's use of its budget for military spending. On the surface, this represents a strengthening of national might, but actually it serves to create tension in the Taiwan Strait and in US-China relations. The arms buildup will boost the influence of China's militaristic factions and cause them to think, just as Iraq and Yugoslavia did, that they could -- with the help of Russia -- go to war with the US.
Those familiar with the US defense industry and US policy know that, regardless of whether the US sells AEGIS-equipped destroyers or Kidd-class destroyers, some of the weaponry Taiwan might obtain is already considered by the US to be 2nd or 3rd-class, or even about to become obsolete. Battles in the Middle East or Yugo-slavia are just testing grounds for US weapons. Nobody can predict what kind of new weapons the US would bring out if fighting really were to break out in the Strait. In April 2000 I visited the nuclear war memorial at Hiroshima, Japan, and the deep shock I experienced remains with me to this day. I still wear a pin from the memorial on my white medical uniform, hoping that we will never see this kind of human tragedy repeated in the Strait.
How Chinese on both sides of the Strait will avoid these three major crises is the most important cross-strait issue of the coming decade. How is Taiwan going to wait for China to pass through these three major crises? How is Taiwan going to keep itself free of the harm wrought by catastrophes occurring in China, and further help the Chinese people to walk the healthy road of democracy and freedom? These are the kinds of issues with which you and I should be concerned, as Taiwan finds itself at this critical crossroads.
Su Yi-jen is a professor at the College of Medicine at National Taiwan University.
Translated by Scudder Smith
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