During President Chen Shui-bian's (
First, Macedonia's Foreign Ministry has chosen a sensitive time to announce its view that Skopje should reestablish ties with China. On May 3, Mace-donia entered a state of general mobilization and attacked the ethnic Albanian liberation army stationed in Kosovo. On May 11, Macedonia's ruling and opposition parties signed an agreement to form a coalition government. The new government then announced its decision to resume ties with China.
This indicates that Taiwan must evaluate its diplomatic relations within the framework of interaction between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Second, Taiwan should put its diplomatic efforts in Eastern Europe into the overall European context as soon as possible. The method of "single-nation breakthroughs" is not only pricey, but also lacks guarantees. Judging from the situation in Macedonia, Taiwan's decision-makers should heed the following three points to prevent a repeat of past failures and to turn crises into opportunities.
One, Taiwan will face increas-ingly limited space for developing its diplomatic ties as most Eastern European countries gradually achieve political and economic stability. Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia have been listed by the EU for the first round of negotiations for entry into that organization. Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Croatia have also gained support from the likes of France and Germany for entry into the EU. It is almost impossible for Taiwan to establish diplomatic ties with those countries because Taipei cannot provide the same financial benefits as the EU does, and because the EU has established a prototype of a "Common Foreign Policy."
Two, some Eastern European countries are troubled by frequent wars and desperately need foreign assistance. It will not be to Taiwan's advantage to intervene, however, if the countries are regarded by Russia as within its sphere of influence, or if they give priority to their domestic politics. Moldova, which had talked about unification with Romania in the early 1990s, is an example of a country regarded by Russia as within its sphere of influence, while Yugoslavia, Bosnia and independence-seeking Montenegro are examples of countries which give priority to their domestic politics.
At the end of last year, there were rumors that Taiwan was about to acquire some new diplomatic allies, and Albania was thought likely to be one of them. But Albania, like Macedonia, has faced serious internal revolt and foreign invasion. Italy had proposed Operation Pelican to provide aid to Albania but the project was beset with difficulties. Albania could become a second Macedonia misstep for Taiwan if it is not careful.
To sum up, it may not be possible for Taiwan to develop diplomatic relations with individual states in Eastern Europe. Instead, Taiwan may choose to concentrate its shrinking diplomatic resources on the EU because it has been a priority for Taipei to enhance substantive relations with the union.
Such a move may help to establish a channel of communication since some Eastern European countries have recently become eager to enter the EU. At the same time, Taiwan can avoid frittering away its time and resources competing with China for recognition from countries that actually have little diplomatic value -- or clout.
Hu Tsu-ching is an associate professor of political science at Tunghai University.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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