After stirring up a flurry last month with his visit to Japan for medical treatment, former president Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) has now dropped a bomb into Taiwan politics with his new biography, An Account of Lee Teng-hui in Power (李登輝執政告白實錄), in which he comments on Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), Lien Chan (連戰) James Soong (宋楚瑜) and Lee Yuan-tseh (李遠哲).
Lee claims that Lien actually forced him to resign ahead of time as KMT chairman last year. He also accuses Lien of being the mastermind behind the revelations about Soong's Chung Hsing Bill Finance scandal. Most importantly, Lee said, "The KMT is constantly becoming weaker after cooperating with the People First Party [PFP]. In the end, it can only rely on money to stick together. So [the party] needs readjustment. The key to readjustment depends on whether Chen will have the ability to control the initiative, unite some of the people in the KMT who share similar views, and form a relatively stable framework for political cooperation."
Lee's statement resonates well with Chen, who said at the DPP's National Congress meeting on Sunday, "In the future, we will unite with opposition forces who share the same views and become a stable majority in the legislature."
Obviously, Lee and Chen are moving toward cooperation and political alliance.
Even though Lee is no longer a KMT official, he still has considerable influence in the party, the leadership of which is now moving away from the path he carved out for it. It is estimated that Lee still has influence over at least 20 KMT legislators.
An alliance between Lee and the DPP will be able to give the KMT-PFP-New Party opposition alliance a run for its money.
Certainly, Lee has personal misgivings about Lien, and is worried that Soong may devour the KMT. But what really made Lee decide to confront a party he chaired for 13 years is perhaps complete disillusionment with the KMT's current policy direction. Under Lee, KMT policy was grounded on "putting Taiwan first" and independent sovereignty -- special state-to-state relations with China. Lien has abandoned both policies. The KMT now seeks support from the descendants of mainlanders and advocates a Greater China path. Because Lee's views now resonate better within the DPP, a Chen-Lee alliance would not be a surprise.
Beyond the ideological divide, the opposition alliance is supported by the descendants of mainlanders, who account for less than 20 percent of the population, while a Chen-Lee alliance will be seeking support from the other 80 percent. Ethic confrontation is bound to escalate in the run-up to the year-end election, further destabilizing the political and economic environment. But this may be the price Taiwan has to pay for democracy. We hope the outcome of the elections will prove that price worthwhile.
Competition between two clear-cut alliances will mean Taiwan is searching for a new political mainstream, a shift from the current political deadlock facing the minority government, and a solution to the constitutional issues such as the dispute over the semi-presidential system. It may also lead to a second wave of political transition.
But the most important aspect to the December elections will be to discover Taiwan's mainstream public opinion. Since the end of the KMT's one-party rule, public opinion has been in chaos. Conflicts between the Greater China and "Taiwan first" proponents have caused disorientation in cross-strait, diplomacy, national security and financial policymaking. Through their ballots, the people of Taiwan will be able to say loud and clear in exactly what direction they want to go.
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