It will soon be a year since President Chen Shui-bian (
Over the past year, Chen has tried and completely failed to lead the political scene with a minority government. Both the Tang Fei (唐飛) and Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄) Cabinets have failed to achieve anything due to the lack of a majority in the Legislative Yuan. After a year of painful lessons, the DPP has apparently decided to set up an alliance with another party to secure a majority in next year's legislature and stabilize the political situation in the event that none of the three major parties gains a majority in the elections.
The DPP will easily enjoy an advantage in teaming up with a small party or factions from a major party after the election if the opposition alliance is not united. But if the opposition alliance can shift smoothly from a legislative alliance to an election campaign alliance, then the KMT, PFP and New Party will easily obtain a legislative majority. This will have an immediate impact on the DPP's rule. Facing a new legislative "mandate," Chen will find it very difficult to build a minority government. He will be forced to compromise and appoint someone from the three-party alliance to form a Cabinet.
Looking at the alliance's performance over the past few weeks, however, one can hardly see any will to seek power. In fact they have fallen into a quagmire of standoffs. Cooperation is at a standstill and signs of discord are emerging. One cannot help but question whether the alliance will last until the elections.
Some say the predicament facing the alliance has to do with Taiwan's electoral system, which is innately detrimental to cross-party cooperation. Forget about a joint campaign with other parties. In a multi-member district, even candidates from the same party can become enemies. Every party is putting up its own nominees, but the number of seats up for grabs is limited. Each party would have to limit its own nominees in order to cooperate with others. Such constraints are bound to produce a backlash from within the parties. It is, therefore, generally believed that the KMT and PFP may have some room for cooperation in the county commissioner and city mayor elections, but they will have to compete against each other in the legislative elections.
These obstacles are not insurmountable. But the prerequisite for overcoming them is that the three parties must have a shared idea of for what and for who they are fighting. Only if the three have a shared ideal to work toward can they throw off this day-trader's mentality. Perhaps they will then be less grudging about losing a few seats and not view each other as targets.
Over the past few months, cooperation between the three has often been short-term. They have not developed a mechanism for long-term cooperation, nor have they hinged the alliance's future on a vision for Taiwan's development. During its one year in power, the DPP government's policies have been subject to much criticism. The pan-KMT forces have a stronger consensus in these areas. Based on that consensus, they can develop policy directions different from the DPP's and make them an election platform.
Taiwan has now entered an era of multi-party politics. None of the opposition parties can secure political power on its own. The pan-KMT forces therefore cannot limit their cooperation to boycotts. They should actively seek political power to realize a policy path that is different from the DPP's.
Apart from solid concepts, the opposition alliance also needs to find a way to resolve disputes over nominations in order to ease the discord created by each party's different interests. In other words, the KMT, PFP and New Party need to set the rules for cooperation, even if it is a low level of cooperation, so that they will not fight against each other. The recent fight between the New Party and the PFP resulted from the lack of an election negotiation mechanism.
The alliance is standing at a crossroad. Whether it sticks together will depend on whether the three have the foresight and determination to seek government power. They will still have a future if they can give up their prejudices and build a mechanism for campaign cooperation. But if they fail to see the big picture, then they will not only let down their supporters, but also fail to develop policies different from the DPP's. This will have a far-reaching impact on Taiwan.
Kao Lang is a professor of political science at National Taiwan University.
Translated by Francis Huang
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