In many ways, the future of East Asia appears to be a bright one. The Asian financial crisis is now contained. Many states are enjoying improved growth fore-casts, reduced unemployment and increasingly positive trade balances.
Another positive trend is the spread of democracy. In 1997, a former political prisoner was elected president of South Korea. In March last year, Taiwan's voters also elected an opposition candidate to win the presidency. Even China is experimenting with democratic reforms in the countryside.
Still another momentous development is the relaxation of tensions on the Korean penin-sula. The historic June 2000 summit between Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il rekindled hopes that the two Koreas might be able to achieve a peaceful, step-by-step reunification.
These and other developments appear encouraging. But the region's principal flashpoints for conflict remain. The prospect of an armed confrontation in Korea, a conflict with unimaginable human and economic costs, is still a distinct possibility. Tensions also remain high in the Taiwan Strait and there remains the threat of war over natural resources in the South China Sea.
The principal challenges to stability in East Asia are not new. What is changing, however, are the capabilities of East Asian governments to do something about them. Sophisticated military equipment is being acquired to bolster projection capabilities and strategic weapons systems are being introduced or upgraded to deter or defeat potential enemies.
With respect to ground forces, troop levels are being cut and units are being restructured. But most states are seeking to increase mobility and firepower. Combat helicopters, modern battle tanks, armored vehicles and transport aircraft are being acquired to bolster the combat effectiveness of rapid deployment forces and other elite units that are becoming the hallmark of the modern Asian military.
Naval power now is being viewed as an instrument of power projection. In recent years, China has acquired four Russian-built submarines while South Korea has acquired seven license-built German boats. China also is pushing to develop a new class of nuclear submarine.
In addition to submarines, a new class of modern surface combatants has steamed into Asian harbors. China's Sovremenny-class destroyers seem to have captured the most attention. But Japan's AEGIS-class destroyers, Taiwan's Knox-class missile frigates and South Korea's planned KDX-2 destroyers also represent a significant boost in naval capabilities. These modern vessels -- and other warships being acquired, manufactured or refurbished -- are often fitted with advanced missile systems, radar, sonar and shipborne helicopters. Some analysts contend that it is only a matter of time before China and/or South Korea acquires an aircraft carrier.
Turning to air power, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have procured advanced US war-planes, while China and North Korea have turned to Russia for new fighters. Most of these countries have also introduced (or hope to introduce) modern, domestically manufactured warplanes into their inventories.
Like the foreign acquisitions, the new indigenous fighters are armed with advanced beyond-visual-range missiles and other state-of-the-art weaponry. Air power will receive another significant boost with the introduction of mid-air refueling tankers. At present, both Beijing and Tokyo intend to acquire such aircraft. Airborne reconnaissance and signals intelligence capabilities also are being reinforced. Japan and Taiwan already operate AWACS aircraft, while China and South Korea hope to acquire them soon.
Military satellites appear to be the next step. China has successfully launched satellites into orbit and Japan, Taiwan and both of the Koreas harbor such ambi-tions. Until recently, China was the only East Asian military possessing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
But this is changing. In August 1998, Pyongyang test-launched a missile that could strike Japan or any of the American forces stationed on Japanese territory. Roughly one year later, it appeared that the launch of an even longer-range missile was imminent. Although the testing of this missile, an ICBM capable of delivering a several hundred kilogram payload to the continental US, was cancelled, the CIA has warned that work on it is continuing.
Another tier of missile activity is represented by the development of ballistic missiles with a more limited range. China has deployed roughly 300 intermediate-range ballistic missiles directly opposite Taiwan. This move has prompted Taipei to reconsider the production of medium-range missiles to target China's coastal cities -- including Shanghai and Hong Kong.
On the Korean peninsula, Pyongyang has manufactured hundreds of SCUD missiles and successfully test-fired a medium-range missile with an estimated range of 1,000km. This has led South Korea to test-launch missiles with a longer range than that agreed upon by Washington and Seoul. Perhaps equally worrisome, Tokyo now claims to have the right to launch a pre-emptive air strike against a potential enemy's missile bases.
In addition to modern delivery systems, both China and North Korea have aggressively increased their stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction. Some believe that North Korea now possesses several nuclear warheads, while others suspect that it is manufacturing more of them.
Moreover, Pyongyang has reportedly stockpiled 4,500 tonnes of chemical and biological warfare agents. For its part, China has miniaturized its nuclear warheads (and increased their payloads), developed ballistic missiles with multiple warheads and acquired the neutron bomb. Although Tokyo, Taipei and Seoul have not developed nuclear weapons, they possess the ability to manufacture them.
It is clear that East Asian states are aggressively seeking to upgrade their existing military capabilities. The region is now experiencing an arms build-up of unprecedented scale. This steady accretion of military power in East Asia, in and of itself, represents a very real challenge to regional -- perhaps even global -- peace and stability.
Promoting peace and stability in East Asia represents a significant challenge to the US. But if the US acts effectively now, the future could unfold in a way that will benefit the entire world.
As a first step, Washington must acknowledge that the region is indeed engaged in an arms race that may lead ultimately to miscalculation and bloodshed. Then, as the world's only superpower, the US ought to convene a series of high-profile arms reduction conferences in an effort to prevent the region's unintended drift toward war.
Building on these meetings, the US should energetically seek to establish a genuine multilateral security forum for East Asia. It is not enough for the US to claim that it supports such an institution. Washington must actively seek to construct one. The organization would provide a forum for arms control negotiations, confidence building measures and the peaceful resolution of disputes such as the one sparked by a collision between a US spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter.
Finally, Washington must very carefully study how major adjustments in US defense policies or deployments might influence the regional security equation. Before deploying a Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system in East Asia, careful consideration must be given to the likely consequences that such a move might provoke. Washington must seek to become part of the solution to the arms race in East Asia, not part of the problem. Consideration should be given to using TMD as a bargaining chip in regional arms reduction conferences.
With the proposal on the table, Beijing and Pyongyang might ultimately be enticed to reduce their growing arsenals of weapons.
It would be a gross exaggeration to suggest that conflict in East Asia is imminent. All concerned parties have in common a desire to find a peaceful resolution to the region's festering disputes. However, continuing down the present road -- a path leading toward a full-fledged arms race -- is fraught with risk. It is for this reason that Washington must take some concrete steps to curb arms proliferation and promote peace and stability in the Western Pacific.
Dennis V. Hickey is professor of political science at Southwest Missouri State University and author of the book, Armies of East Asia: China, Taiwan, Japan and the Koreas.
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