Thu, Apr 05, 2001 page8

• A turning point for Sino-US ties

  • By Liu Kuan-teh 劉冠德
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  Although he has been in the White House for only three months or so, US President George W. Bush has already suffered many domestic and external setbacks. In addition to Congress' criticisms of his tax plan and the public's doubts about his decision to launch an air strike against Iraq, the Bush administration's Asia policy has also invited serious debate, especially when it comes to relations with China.

  Although he has been able to recruit some veteran Asia specialists to his administration, Bush currently faces growing pressures from home after his initial encounters with Chinese leaders. The recent mid-air collision over the South China Sea between a US surveillance plane carrying 24 crew members and a Chinese fighter jet on an intercept mission constitutes the greatest crisis so far for Bush, who used to be considered a rookie in major league politics.

  While both Washington and Beijing point fingers at each other for causing the crash, the timing of the accident has in fact introduced a wild card into the sensitive triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing and Taipei. On the one hand, the incident threatens to damage China-US relations at a delicate time when Bush is weighing his strategy toward China and facing a crucial decision on whether to sell advanced weapons systems to Taiwan. Some argue that the longer the deadlock continues, the worse it will be for relations between China and the US. In that case, they argue, Taiwan will become the sole beneficiary of the Sino-US confrontation, as, in the face of China's reckless move toward military provocation, Washington may provide Taiwan with advanced weapons such as AEGIS-equipped destroyers and anti-submarine systems.

  The above theory, however, overlooks the potential danger attending a deteriorating Sino-US relationship. Beijing's continuing deployment of missiles along its southeast coast and increases in its military budget have caused regional as well as international concern. As the annual US-Taiwan arms sales talks approach, the pro-Taiwan camp is increasing the pressure on Bush to sell more advanced weapons to Taipei. This collision incident will no doubt place further pressure on the Bush administration.

  Whether or not Taiwan can benefit from a deterioration in Beijing-Washington relations remains uncertain. It is definitely not in Taiwan's interest, however, to see any standoff, or even military confrontation, between the US and China. Taiwan should carefully monitor the follow-up to the event and call for a peaceful resolution of the incident.

  Even before the collision, Chinese officials were already highly sensitive to what they believed was a tougher US posture toward China -- one that viewed China as a military competitor first and a trade partner second. The first interactions between the new Bush administration and Chinese leaders have been difficult, marked by the recent defection to the US of a high-level Chinese army colonel, Xu Junping (徐俊平), and China's detention of visiting US-based Chinese academics.

  Bush is facing a new diplomatic crisis before he has had a chance to meet his Chinese counterpart, President Jiang Zemin (江澤民), whom he is scheduled to meet in September. Bush has demanded a swift and safe return of the US surveillance plane. He had no choice but to take a cautious approach in tackling the crisis, although he was troubled by the lack of an immediate response from the Chinese government.

  In this regard, Taipei should reiterate its position on US arms sales to Taiwan. That is, according to the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances, Washington must provide Taiwan with the weapons it needs to defend itself. Taiwan should not become a bargaining chip in a diplomatic wrangle.

  During his meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen(錢其琛) last month, Bush urged both sides to seek common ground in respect of existing differences between the two sides. The issues concerning China's abuse of human rights and religious freedom, Chinese military build-ups and the opening of the Chinese market constitute the key controversies of Sino-US relations. Several top officials of the administration have also indicated the US' goal of establishing a cooperative yet competitive relationship with Beijing.

  Nevertheless, the latest episode reveals several problems faced by the Bush administration. First and foremost is that a full team of Asia policymakers is not yet in place. Many personnel in the National Security Council, Department of Defense and State Department who will handle much of the nitty gritty work have not been appointed yet. The lack of integrated policy coordination poses an inherent danger to the administration. Since Bush pledged during the election campaign to engineer a new approach to China, it makes sense for the new administration to re-examine the current policy toward Taipei and Beijing. But before the Bush administration articulates a coherent Asia policy some time from now, it is imperative for the US to take an incremental approach to safeguard Taiwan's security, while at the same time maintaining a balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.

  Liu Kuan-teh is a Taipei-based political commentator.
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