The recent local elections in France resulted in another wave of power reshuffles between left- and right-wing parties. From a national perspective, the structure of the French electorate still remains basically right-wing.
But the Socialist victory in Paris not only indicates that the Rally for the Republic (RPR) has failed in its attempts at integration, but also that the grouping may continue to unravel. Just like the KMT, the RPR has long been a mainstream right-wing party. The splits in the two parties were also caused by similar factors. Whether the KMT will learn from the RPR's experience will determine the performance of the pan-KMT forces in the year-end election.
There are three points worth noting in this regard. One, the RPR's split began in the 1995 presidential election. At one point before that election, then prime minister Edouard Balladur enjoyed strong popularity ratings and parliamentary support. Popularity ratings showed that he could become the first presidential candidate in the Fifth Republic to be elected in the first round. Also, a vast majority in the RPR-Union for French Democracy (UDF) coalition government supported him.
Facing a challenge from this "old friend of 30 years," RPR Chairman Jacques Chirac sought to control the party machine with the support of secretary-general Alain Juppe. Chirac was able to beat Balladur in the first round and defeat Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the second round. But cracks in the right-wing camp were already running deep, resulting in the group's setback in the 1997 snap parliamentary elections.
Chirac was unable to heal the split after winning the presidency. Instead, he supported Juppe's appointment as prime minister, in return for the favors he had received in the election. In 1997, Chirac dissolved the parliament and called an early election in order to consolidate his and Juppe's power bases. In that election, both the RPR and UDF lost almost half the number of seats they had won in 1993. The Fifth Republic entered five years of left-right cohabitation.
Under these circumstances, RPR elder Charles Pasqua teamed up with ultra right-winger Philippe de Villier and formed a new political party, the Rally for France (RPF), which won more seats than the RPR in the 1999 European Parliament elections.
Reforms became inevitable for the RPR. But the reforms were overshadowed by the defeat of Chirac's hand-picked candidate in the party chairmanship election. The calamity brought to a party by the selfishness and adventurism of politicians is the same, whether in Taiwan or France.
Third, even though party reforms did not go according to expectations, Chirac still tried to win another presidential term with the support of the right-leaning electorate. As a result, he maintained a "sit and talk" -- approach toward party reforms. One after another, people like Philippe Seguin and Balladur pitched for the Paris mayorship. The election results showed that a divided RPR was no match for the united left wing. The little-known Socialist candidate Bertrand Delanoe won the Paris race.
Paris was a setback of the RPR's own making. Under France's polarized multi-party political environment and right-leaning electorate, the left wing has pinned its hopes for victory on a divided right. In 1993, the RPR and the UDF jointly won 70 percent of the parliamentary seats. Eight years later, the RPR has lost not only its parliamentary majority but also the Paris mayorship. These setbacks will affect the party's chances in next year's presidential election.
Looking at Taiwan, if the KMT and the People First Party do not learn their lesson and keep up their guard, the possibility of further splits is likely.
Hu Tsu-ching is an associate professor of political science at Tunghai University.
Translated by Francis Huang
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