Sun, Feb 18, 2001 page8

• China to US: Don't tread on me

  • By Joseph Bosco
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  In his congratulatory message to US President George W. Bush, Chinese leader Jiang Zemin (江澤民) cautioned the president-elect to maintain good bilateral relations by adhering to the three Sino-US communiques.

  Jiang was also signaling dissatisfaction with Bush campaign statements suggesting an arms-length relationship with China -- "strategic competition" instead of "strategic partnership" -- and a clearer commitment to Taiwan.

  In months preceding the election, a steady stream of visiting Chinese officials and scholars indicated Beijing's preference for a Gore presidency as a continuation of Clinton's China policy. Now China has forewarned the new administration not to deviate from policies followed by six presidents since Richard Nixon's 1971 opening to the People's Republic.

  But it is China that needs to reassure the US -- and the world -- about its peaceful intentions. At a recent Georgetown conference on the future of China-US security relations, even scholars long committed to a policy of engagement and cooperation noted Beijing's more aggressive recent posture toward Taiwan and the US.

  Warning signs abound:

  China has become more bellicose in its actions and statements toward Taiwan.

  In 1995 and 1996, Beijing fired missiles toward Taiwan to warn voters against supporting then-president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) or the independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party. The intimidation backfired as Washington sent two carriers to the region and Lee became Taiwan's first directly elected president.

  The independence movement also gained adherents. China avoided such tactics in the 1998 legislative and municipal elections and the DPP opposition lost ground. But, learning the wrong lesson, Beijing reverted to its heavy-handed tactics and deployed hundreds of missiles across the Strait.

  This revived anti-China sentiment on the island and helped lead to the election last year of the DPP's Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) as president, leading to yet another round of Chinese recriminations and threats. Despite the olive branches he has offered since his election, Beijing has vilified Chen for not accepting the "one China" policy as dutifully as his predecessor (the same Lee China labeled a "splittist" and fired missiles at to intimidate).

  When conflict is the Chinese mindset, it seems any pretext will do. China has expanded the circumstances for going to war with Taiwan. For years, Beijing warned that if Taiwan, already a de facto state, were to formally declare independence, China would attack. Though supportive of Taiwan's democracy, Washington cautioned Taipei against provoking China.

  Taiwan has complied.

  In his campaign, Chen disavowed both independence and the referendum he once favored on the issue. But, far from mollifying Beijing, Taiwan's prudence has been met with new Chinese demands. In a White Paper early last year, Beijing added a new pretext for going to war: excessive delay in Taiwan's submission to Chinese rule. Once, Taiwan's disturbing of the status quo was a casus belli to China's leaders, now maintaining it rankles them.

  China has declared that the US is its enemy.

  During the 1996 crisis, the Chinese defense minister said Beijing would attack American cities if Washington came to Taiwan's defense. The threat has been repeated, most recently in the Liberation Army Daily, China's official military newspaper. In a recent visit to Beijing, Defense Secretary William Cohen complained that Chinese official publications continue to portray the US as an enemy. On the day Cohen arrived, a headline in China's leading newspaper called America the main threat to world peace.

  Chinese spokespersons confidently predict that George W. Bush's impertinent statements on China and Taiwan will soon yield to reality, just as Ronald Reagan abandoned his campaign promise to recognize Taiwan and Bill Clinton forgot his aversion to the "butchers of Beijing."

  But it is China that is changing the modus vivendi and threatening the stability of the three-party relationship, the linchpin of which is the peaceful resolution of the China-Taiwan dispute.

  It is to be hoped that China's leaders will return to a policy of patience, restraint, and prudence before they choose to test the commitment of the new administration.

  Joseph Bosco is a Washington attorney and adjunct professor in the Asian Studies Program at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.
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