US President George W. Bush will make his first foreign trip to Mexico beginning tomorrow.
"The meeting will be an opportunity to begin the process of achieving closer ties between the US and Mexico and expanding areas of cooperation," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said.
Bush will meet his Mexican counterpart and old friend, Vicente Fox. They first met last August during a visit that then-President-elect Fox made to the US after his election on July 2. In fact, for many years, "the governors of California, Texas and Florida are more important for Latin America than are many federal officials," according to Abraham Lowenthal, professor of International Relations at USC.
The two men, who share a fondness for cowboy boots and wide open spaces, will get together at Fox's ranch in San Cristobal, Guanajuato State for a one-day meeting. Analysts note that the meeting site of the two leaders has a significant symbolism. According to Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, director of the Mexico Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, "the stress on having the meeting at the ranch, and not a more official place, underlines the friendliness of the relationship."
Bush makes his first foreign trip to Mexico for three main reasons. First, as a former governor of Texas, Bush knows well that relations with Mexico are a top priority because what happens there affects the US enormously. Mexico presents a series of challenging issues, such as illegal immigration, drug trafficking, environmental pollution and labor.
In order to build a community of interest with neighbors, first "should be a visit between president Bush and his Mexican counterpart, Vicente Fox, at the earliest possible time," according to an executive summary titled The Western Hemisphere: An American Policy Priority released by The American Forum on Jan. 8. It is reasonable that Bush seeks to improve ties with the US' southern neighbor.
Second, it is easier for Washington to establish strategic relation with Mexico than with other countries in the region. Many South America countries are more oriented toward each other and toward Europe and Asia than they are to the US. In Mexico and Central America people are more focused on relations with the US because of increasingly strong economic, demographic, cultural, social and political ties.
However, as a strong opponent of Mexico's membership of NAFTA in the mid-90s, newly appointed foreign secretary Jorge Castaneda complicates the relations between the two countries. In fact, right-wingers such as Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, Senator Jesse Helms of North Carolina, have labeled Castaneda a leftist. That is why Colin Powell held his first news conference jointly with Castaneda. In addition, Fox's National Security Advisor Adolfo Aguilar Zinser makes no secret of his anti-US views. Thus, Bush's visit can smooth Mexico's anti-American tendencies. It can not only trigger an intense dialogue that both presidents intend to develop in their bilateral relationship but also represents an important opportunity in defining its course in the coming years.
Third, free trade requires a political consensus, a consensus that will need to be secured within the US as much as within the region. Mexico was chosen as the first country to visit because it overtook Japan as the US' second largest trade partner last year. Canada is the first.
Furthermore, on April 20-22 in Quebec, Bush is due to meet Northern Hemisphere leaders at the third Summit of the Americas. At that meeting, they will receive a first draft of a pact that will erase the trade barrier from Alaska to Patagonia as of 2005. Organizers of the meeting expect Bush will inject new life into free trade negotiations, which have faltered due to lack of Washington's commitment. Latin American governments will be disappointed if he has not by then sent a bill to Congress seeking fast-track authority to clinch trade deals. It is essential if Washington really wants to embrace Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by the agreed-upon date of 2005, or possibly earlier.
Drug trafficking, illegal immigration, and labor issues are top priorities at the bilateral meeting. The issue of drug trafficking is important because the drug trade brings violence and corruption to both countries. Connecticut Democrat Senator Christopher Dodd and Texas Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison have expressed interest in supporting suspension of the process of certifying Mexico's cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking, at least for a year.
The emigrants play an important role in endorsement of globalization. According to Fox, "the more we open the border the more we can develop," which means the border is central to Fox's plans to revolutionize Mexico. For decades, Mexico disowned its emigrants as renegades who had turned tail on their country and culture. The emigrants were viewed as somehow disloyal, even as they pumped billions of dollars back into the economy. Fox not only claims Mexican Americans and Mexican citizens in the US as allies, but he identifies himself with them. In his inaugural speech on Dec. 1, 2000, Fox referred to them as "our beloved migrants, our heroic migrants." Thus, Fox hopes that the US will agree to better treatment of the 300,000 or more Mexicans, legal or illegal, who go north each year.
Labor problems should be discussed because of ongoing NAFTA issues. In 1988, bilateral trade amounted to US$44 billion; in 2000 it was estimated to have reached US$250 billion. Fox is inheriting the strongest economy in 30 years from Ernesto Zedillo. However, the wealth is not fairly distributed to all Mexicans. Since NAFTA was enacted in 1994, poverty has actually grown. Both presidents agree that "if Mexico's economy becomes stronger, fewer Mexicans will head north looking for work." At the same, Texas Republican Senator Phil Gramm has already begun discussions with his colleagues about a guest worker program that would give Mexicans permission to work in the US for a year in service and agriculture jobs.
A one-day visit will not change US-Mexican relations immediately. The real prescription for maintaining the bilateral relation stably, as Fox suggested, is "Let's be real friends, real neighbors and real partners. Then we will all gain." By making Mexico his first foreign trip, Bush has shown he is willing to help out by placing Mexico high on the White House list of priorities. Bush's trip can not only show new administration's real friendship to Mexico, but also express Washington's positive response to Mexico's successful "partisan alternative" in seven decades.
Antonio C. Hsiang (
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