The implementation of the "small three links" (
However, will this in fact happen? The economic and crime issues aside, let us approach the issue solely from the standpoint of military strategy. If the small three links do not come with adequate and comprehensive supplemental measures to ensure strategic security for our country, the day that the small three links begin may also be the beginning of a crisis in the Kinmen region.
From the standpoint of air defense, after the direct aviation links begin, the off-shore islands will be left with a dangerously short warning period for attacks. It will become very difficult to prevent infiltration and surprise attacks. We have seen many prior international incidents in which military operations were carried through under the disguise of civil aviation. Two examples being the "Uganda Operation" and the tragedy of flight KE-007. It is impossible to know whether incidents such as these will occur in Taiwan after the small three links go into effect.
From the standpoint of naval defense, after direct sea links begin, if PRC boats legally enter Taiwan waters without close supervision, they will become immediate security threats to the off-shore islands because Taiwan authorities will be unable to distinguish them from local vessels. From the standpoint of ground defense, China may rely on disguises to conceal its military infiltration and surprise attacks, preventing Kinmen from engaging in independent defense and offensives.
After the small three links begin, the strategic value of the distant islands of Kinmen will decrease. Plus, once Kinmen's military and strategic value to Taiwan is reduced, the issue of whether the number of the troops stationed there should be adjusted will be raised. The troops may even be withdrawn altogether as a result of pressure by pro-unification lawmakers.
Once Kinmen loses its ability to act as a front-line of defense, the invisible middle line between Kinmen and Matsu will be challenged. With the two sides of the Taiwan Strait only a hundred or so nautical miles away, not only will enemy planes be able to reach Taiwan in a very short period of time, but PRC fighter jets may launch surprise attacks against Taiwan under cover and by trailing commercial airplanes.
The prospects do not look promising considering the PRC authorities continue to give Taiwan the cold shoulder. In addition, China has not decreased or eased its military threats in response to the goodwill shown by Taiwan in the launching of the small three links. We do not see any possible way the PRC will declare a willingness to refrain from use of force against Taiwan.
However, it is quite possible that China will gradually infiltrate and engulf Kinmen and Matsu and destroy their ability to strategically serve as buffers for Taiwan and Penghu. This may open the way for the People's Liberation Army to take over Kinmen and Matsu by a Trojan Horse tactic. From the standpoints of both military strategy and crime control, I cannot help but feel concerned about the risk of opening our door to China.
Chai Trong is a DPP lawmaker.
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