A recent survey has indicated that people in Taiwan are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future. This is not surprising, because our political leaders look helpless too. As a result, the future of the now famous "boy scout team" in the Presidential Office and the President's Advisory Group on Cross-Strait Relations looks bleak. Every move these two groups make influences the public's perception of the administration. Making the public believe in a promising future is key to bringing an end to the ongoing political chaos.
The so-called "boy scouts" attract controversy, because they are driven around by chauffeurs, work in high-ranking positions, live in luxurious residences, all while barely being over 30 years old. The criticism against them has driven them into a corner. As a result, they cling even more tightly to power and short-term windfalls.
Of course, these young advisers could not possibly have made it into the Presidential Office on their own. They entered by riding on President Chen Shui-bian's
The conclusion reached by the President's Advisory Group on Cross-Strait Relations has also stirred up a lot of controversy. Virtually everyone, including the chairperson of the Mainland Affairs Council and Beijing officials, sees the conclusion as simply reaffirming the "special state-to-state" formula. Some have praised the group for maintaining the ambiguities needed for peace, while the opposition alliance criticized the conclusion as lacking substance. Beijing said the conclusion was "neither fish nor fowl."
No one had thought that the group could reach any conclusion. As a result, its members felt compelled to reach a conclusion, just to prove everyone wrong. The resulting conclusion naturally provoked much skepticism.
People with a bleak future tend to act only with the short term in mind. These actions tend to be manipulative, morally lacking, empty and motivated by "face." While the "boy scouts" may have much power now, they feel insecure about their bleak future and if they gradually loose control, the president will become even more isolated. Compounding this problem, the cross-party task force lacks power and just wants to quickly finish its business and disappear, which will leave the president without a shield to protect him from criticism over his China policy.
The opposition alliance's mockery of the "boy scouts" and Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office's dismissal of the advisory group's conclusion has exacerbated problems. The opposition should provide much-needed training for the "boy scouts" and serve as their back-ups, so that they will be able to emerge from the protection of the president. Once his staff members gain a measure of confidence, Chen would be able to gradually overcome his low self-esteem. China should also encourage the advisory group to take its time, or even possibly arrange for Lee Yuan-tseh (李遠哲) to serve as a cross-strait liaison. Once Lee's credibility is established, everyone, including Chen, would have more trust in Lee. If such an arrangement could be made, the president would have a greater chance at resolving the cross-strait gridlock.
While the ruling party cannot evade responsibility for the bleak future of the "boy scouts" and the task force, those who refuse to throw a lifeline would eventually suffer a miserable end as well.
Shih Chih-yu is a professor of political science at National Taiwan University.
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