Today marks the end of President Chen Shui-bian's (
Since their fall from power, the opposition has been lamenting, "It's been too long," while the ruling party -- looking at its plummeting popularity rating -- has been shaking its head and saying, "Too soon." Meanwhile, the general public have been watching the stock market slump and shouting, "Too miserable."
In half a year, Chen's popularity rating has fallen from 80 percent to 46 percent. The rise and fall of a president's poll ratings are perfectly natural, but now that Chen's ratings have fallen below 50 percent in the face of the opposition's recall drive, the chances of the recall drive has also risen. Taiwan has seen its assets reduced by one half as the TAIEX has fallen from around 9,000 points to yesterday's 4,845 points. Given the current financial situation, there is a rather strong possibility that a financial crisis may break out early next year.
Apart from the crackdown on "black gold," the new government has had very little success in its first six months as the Executive Yuan fails to get its policies implemented. Meanwhile, unemployment has risen and business investments have fallen.
Taiwan's chaos has its roots in politics. To begin with, Taiwan has a semi-presidential Constitution, which is a difficult system to implement. For his part, Chen is unwilling to share the presidential power with the opposition. His is a minority government, both in terms of his own mandate and in terms of the number of seats his party has in the legislature. Going against these forces, Chen first set up a "government for all the people" and invited the KMT's Tang Fei (
Seeing the urgency of the internal problems, Chen has set up a nine-member team in order to expand the DPP's participation in the policymaking process.
Chen's fluctuating political direction has aggravated the political upheaval. After coming to office, Chen abandoned the strategy of political integration and gave priority to hotly debated DPP policies. In anticipation of next year's elections, he announced the halting of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant and the postponement of a final decision on the Meinung Dam. These have deepened worries in business circles.
Before the election, Chen advocated respect for market mechanisms. But after taking office, he activated the National Security Fund (NSF) to intervene in the stock market. Now the market tumbles, as it did yesterday, once the NSF takes a break from the market. The government still does not have a comprehensive package of industrial policies. The Executive Yuan has decided to hold a national economic conference early next year, but the current problems demand immediate action.
Chen is now like a bird in a political cage of his own making. Over the past six months, the political system, partisan relations, policies and personal style have all been debated. Chen has also learnt all he needs to learn about solutions. The question now is what choices he will make. Having less than 50 percent popular support is a major alarm. If he does not act to salvage the situation now, everything will be too late.
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