The drive to recall President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), caused by halting construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant (核四), has started a battle between the ruling and opposition parties. Whoever admits defeat first will lose both "face" and jeopardize his or her party's future. If both refuse to brake to save face, both will lose. If, however, both are willing to make concessions,despite embarrassment, they could effectively escape paying the costly price of a battle.
If the ruling and opposition parties were rational, one of them would have withdrawn from the battle by now. Neither, however, has shown any sign so far of retreating, because both predict that the other will chicken out first. Thus the fight has now become a test of determination and foresight.
Both sides realize that the chance of Chen being removed from office is high if the Legislative Yuan passes the recall motion. Although surveys recently conducted by the Executive Yuan show that about 63 percent of Taiwanese people disagree with the recall move, survey statistics and the number of voters who will actually vote to recall Chen are two different things. Should the voters of Taiwan decide to recall Chen, not only will the nations'ethnic conflicts be inflamed, but all future presidents will live under the recall threat. These consequences will harm the peace and stability of our nation. As a result, I disagree with such a strong over-reaction to the current chaos.
Even if the legislature fails to pass the recall motion, Chen should nevertheless engage in some self-reflection and come to terms with one fact: he is a lame-duck president. The Constitution vests limited authority in the president. The president therefore needs to resort to his personal charm and prestige to shape and forge a consensus of the people and the opposition parties for the promotion of national policies. The recent dispute has injured Chen's reputation, aggravating the difficulties he faces in governing. Besides, Chen's party is only a minority party in the legislature, making it even more difficult for him to promote his national policies.
Chen had a great opportunity to promote his policies in the three-month honeymoon period after his inauguration, since he enjoyed high levels of popular support at the time. He will never get another opportunity like that. Chen needs to realize that he and his administration are being challenged by powerful parties that make up a legislative majority. These parties have formed a united front precisely because of him.
It is to be hoped that Chen can learn to keep an open mind from now on, and listen to people's voices with a humble and honest attitude, so that he can win back people's hearts as well as stabilize his relations with the opposition. If he continues to rely on trickery and gimmicks to suppress the recall move, then his problems are only beginning.
Chen has recently shown goodwill by making an apology to the people of Taiwan and to KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰). This gesture, however, was insufficient to solve the dispute since all trust between the ruling and the opposition parties has been destroyed. Besides, if the opposition withdraws the recall motion now, they might be accused of having pushed the motion because of personal feelings or their parties' interests. Thus, if the KMT abandons the recall move, it will lose popular support and stature as the leader of the opposition alliance. To resolve the dispute, Chen perhaps needs to make a policy concession or a concession over government personnel, as well as respect the opposition parties' roles in the decision-making process.
Emile C. J. Sheng is an assistant professor of the department of political science at Soochow University.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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