US citizens have taught their politicians a lesson at the turn of the millennium: "Respect public opinion." This lesson is also significant for a fledgling demo-cracy like Taiwan.
This US presidential election hangs in the balance, with unprecedentedly close results between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore. Ballots are being recounted again and again in Florida, where a few hundred votes will decide who will garner the 25 electors' votes and become the first US president of the 21st century. The two men are less than 1 percent apart in their share of the popular vote. The gaps between the Democrats and Republicans also remains extremely close in Congress, with the Republicans winning only slight majorities in both the Senate and House elections.
With the two parties running neck and neck, it is difficult to see which way mainstream public opinion is heading. No wonder the results have caused many political observers to express concern about future political operations. Some even think the US faces severe social and political divisions.
Bush will be the next US president if he wins Florida, even though he may have won less of the popular vote than Gore. Despite the Republican majorities in Congress, an opponent with a higher popular mandate will be a thorn in Bush's side. If Gore wins, then popular votes may be consistent with the electoral college votes. But that hardly means that Gore will have an easy time, given that the Republicans control both houses.
That neither side has majority popular support and that Congress is split almost half and half, are indications that the US electorate is not satisfied with the political parties, politicians and their policies. They are not willing to give any party or individual enough support to go it alone. Whoever wins the elections must be careful about what he says and does and constantly be on the lookout for possible counter-attacks.
Leaders of congressional and public opinion have interpreted this new political climate as a sign that no single party will have absolute dominance of the White House or Congress. The key principle for political maneuvers will be bi-partisan consensus. Platforms that the two parties can agree on will be implemented first, while political disputes will have to be resolved through bi-partisan negotiations at Congress. Bi-partisan co-governance will be the key future trend.
Taiwan's political milieu is much more treacherous. If heavy-handed maneuvers are not permissible in US politics, they are even less so in Taiwan. After being elected president with a minority mandate, Chen Shui-bian
If Chen can learn from the US emphasis on subtle skills during political disputes -- respecting the other parties and public opinion, readjusting political priorities accordingly, implementing policies about which there is a popular consensus, and deferring more controversial policies, "conquering the hard with the soft" -- then Taiwan politics may shift to a completely different track in the next three years.
Chen proclaimed a "New Middle Way" soon after he took office, vowing to tread a path acceptable to a majority of society. For this, he was criticized by hardline supporters within his own party. Now Chen has shifted to his line and is coming under fire from opposition parties and Beijing. Conflict and harmony depends on what Chen has seen in the mirror of US politics, and how he decides to act on it.
Vincent Lin is associate editor in chief of the Taipei Times.
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