Is Lien Chan
Or is his zealous prosecution of the drive to recall President Chen Shui-bian (
There are three main reasons for the KMT to call a halt to the recall drive. First, even though Chen has not performed well since taking office, six months is too short a time to judge a president's performance. The administration is also the remit of the premier. For the opposition parties to ask for a multiple punishment for one administrative measure -- an impeachment of the premier by the Control Yuan and a presidential recall -- certainly smacks of a self-aggrandizing political grudge match.
Second, opinion polls show that a majority of voters are not happy with Chen's performance, but 63 percent also oppose Chen's recall because of the massive social costs that will be incurred. The KMT has been quick to hitch a ride on the public's unhappiness over Chen brusquely ramming through his decision to halt construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant. But now public anger has subsided, the KMT leadership is turning its back both on public opinion and internal dissent in pushing ahead with the recall.
Thirdly, while the KMT has been very keen, the People's First Party has not taken a clear stance on the recall issue, leaving itself room for maneuver in case the recall drive begins to falter. If that happens, the KMT will be left alone to shoulder responsibility for the political consequences. But if the Legislative Yuan passes the recall motion, however, Lien's chances in the subsequent presidential election are extremely dim, given his low popularity rating. James Soong (宋楚瑜) would reap a political windfall and probably the presidency. Either way Lien and the KMT would die like dogs.
Apart from Lien's humiliation, the various opposition parties are hanging on to the recall drive for different purposes. The KMT wants to squeeze more political benefits out of Chen's government. It wants the formal creation of a coalition government and the overturning of the decision on the nuclear plant. The New Party is demanding that the government accept the so-called "1992 consensus" with Beijing on "one China." KMT legislators want to restore their power to propose local construction projects for central government funding -- an important campaign resource for lawmakers. Independent legislators, many of whom have been dogged by criminal cases, also are waiting to reap some solid benefits from the confrontation.
When the National Assembly was amending the Constitution last year, someone suggested that Taiwan adopt an absolute majority system for presidential elections, but Chen opposed the idea. A relative majority system was finally adopted, paving the way for Chen to become president with a plurality of the popular vote only. But an insufficient mandate coupled with the opposition's absolute majority at the legislature has caused political instability. In a way, the recall drive is a delayed "second round of voting." To prevent the opposition's challenges, Chen's government will need support from an absolute majority of the voters. By foolishly proceeding with their recall drive, the opposition parties are in fact helping Chen gain majority support.
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