Wed, Oct 25, 2000 page8

• Sino-Japanese relations a muddle

  • By Amako Satoshi 天兒慧
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  In recent years, Sino-Japanese relations have appeared relatively stable. In July 1999, the then Japanese prime minister Keizo Obuchi (小淵惠三) indicated that the "problems in Sino-Japanese relations" stirred up by PRC President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) in late 1998 were not serious problems at all. This past May Jiang also emphasized the importance of Sino-Japanese relations to Beijing.

  Meanwhile, think-tanks in China have repeatedly stressed that it is unwise for both sides to dwell on the "problems in Sino-Japanese relations." Japan reached its agreement with China on WTO issues way ahead of the US and the European countries in an effort to promote internationalization and market economics in China. The two sides made further breakthroughs in trade, pushing the total value of their business transactions to a record high of US$66.2 billion. This year total trade will reportedly hit US$80 billion.

  As for Taiwan-Japan relations, Tokyo's timely response to the 921 earthquake clearly showed that the ties between the two countries remain very close in many respects. Japan's deep interest in the March presidential election also illustrated that Taiwan has become an important neighbor.

  Although progress in Sino-Japanese and Taiwan-Japanese relations deserves recognition, certain problems cannot be overlooked. First of all, despite a growing economic relationship, the friendship between the peoples of Japan and China is gradually deteriorating. The problem is sometimes reflected in criticism by Japanese of Japan's diplomatic and economic policies toward China.

  The Japanese are beginning, for example, to criticize their government's lending of huge amounts of money to Beijing for the last 20 years. Although the value of the loans is estimated to be as much as ?2 trillion, the Chinese government has never shown its appreciation. In fact, most people in China don't even know about the loans, which indicates that such aid has done little to improve Sino-Japan relations. No wonder the Japanese are disenchanted.

  Beijing's military expansion also has the Japanese worried. As a consequence, many Japanese are demanding that Tokyo reduce the value of its loans. If they are to improve the situation, neither the government nor the people of China should continue to offend the Japanese people in such ways. Tokyo, meanwhile, should also begin to seriously reconsider the purpose of its massive loans to China and to craft a more efficient lending policy, so that it may build a healthier framework for economic relations.

  The ill-will, however, is mutual -- for the Chinese are none too happy with the Japanese. The new definition given to the US-Japan Defense Cooperation and the development of the Theater Missile Defense system for East Asia have been interpreted by the Beijing government as direct threats against itself. The attempt to twist the history of the "Nanjing Massacre" (南京大屠殺) by revising Japanese textbooks further stimulates anti-Japanese sentiment among the Chinese.

  The second problem is that, since coming to power, Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has made the "Taiwan issue" a more complex aspect of Sino-Japan relations. If Taiwan insists on its independence, cross-strait relations will seriously deteriorate and this will eventually lead to war in the Taiwan Strait. Should this materialize, US efforts to secure Taiwan's safety while maintaining good relations with China will be in vain. The maintenance of peace in the Strait is therefore a top priority for all concerned.

  I believe the increase in economic activity between Taiwan and China will help to improve cross-strait relations. Beijing announced emphatically that its Taiwan policy would remain unchanged after Chen took office and that all Taiwanese companies were still welcome to invest in China. On the other hand, if China chooses to undertake a war against Taiwan, its aggression will not only harm Taiwan and the East Asia region, but will also destroy Sino-Japanese and Sino-US relations.

  Five years ago, I pointed out that it would take time to resolve the cross-strait and the North-South Korea issues. Fortunately, East Asian countries have begun attempts to reduce hostility toward each other by forming a framework of non-hostility, non-unification, and coexistence in the region. Such a framework also indirectly ensures Taiwan's safety in the wake of the DPP becoming the ruling party.

  What should Japan do now? It is unwise for Tokyo to lean toward either side of the Strait, despite its antipathy to China and its friendliness to Taiwan. The Japanese government should maintain good relations with both sides. Meanwhile, it should send strong messages to both urging the two to maintain the best possible relations in order to preserve the equilibrium between all three sides.

  Japan's friendly, but sometimes ambiguous, attitude to both Taiwan and China is appropriate. I call this attitude a "positive ambiguity" and I think it should remain a key principles in Sino-Japanese and Taiwan-Japanese relations. The unqualified pursuit of peaceful and stable relations should be the primary goal for all sides.

  Amako Satoshi is a professor at the Aoyama Gakuin University in Japan.

  Translated by Eddy Chang
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