The Agreed Framework and KEDO are two of the functioning policies that help to engage North Korea through a concerted multilateral mechanism. The historic inter-Korea Summit in June further eased tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Neighboring and other major countries, supporting and encouraging the rapprochement process, are also reassessing their relations with one of the last Stalinist states in the world. As the right person at the right time and the right place, it is therefore perfectly natural for President Kim to seize the occasion of ASEM summit to urge other ASEM countries to improve their relations with Pyongyang and to ensure their support for his proposed "Seoul Declaration on Peace on the Korean Peninsula," expected to be the highlight of the Summit. An important point to observe is the extent to which relations between North Korea and neighboring and major countries would improve or enhance, which depends upon where these countries' interests lie therein, and is inevitably shadowed by the uncertainty of the Pyongyang regime.
According to one updated research on EU-North Korea relations from Professor Reinhard Drifte, Chair of Japanese Studies of Department of Politics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK, the EU's financial support to KEDO from March 1995 through July 1999 has been US$52 million, compared with Japan's US$35.7 million (includes a refundable collateral of US$19 million), South Korea's US$62.2 million, and the US with US$152.5 million. One of the direct consequences of the EU's involvement in KEDO is that it has raised the EU's awareness of and engagement on the Korean Peninsula, and prompted greater attempts to consolidate its policy towards the Korean Peninsula. For example, the EU opened a political dialogue with North Korea in December 1998, and the European Parliament also sent a 'fact-finding' delegation to North Korea from 6 to 13 December 1998. Supporting and welcoming President Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy" and the inter-Korea rapprochement, the EU now takes a positive attitude towards upgrading relations with North Korea. As Professor Drifte predicts, "Things are moving rather fast on this front, and Germany is more or less able to take action (normalization) any day. There has just been a deputy foreign minister in Pyongyang. The Commission/EU is also trying to move, and there may be a decision before the end of the year on having a North Korea mission or something like this and a North Korean liaison office in Brussels."
Nonetheless, Professor Drifte also noted reservations among some member states about there not yet being concrete results on nuclear arms control and missiles in North Korea. When making the announcement of British government decision to forge ties with North Korea in Seoul on Thursday, British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said that, "this opening of diplomatic relations is not any way an approval of the conduct of the regime," and denied that it implied acceptance of the regime or its human rights record. Among the priorities that the EU would like to address in ASEM III, an "enhanced exchange of views" on regional and global security issues will focus on arms control, disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation. Professor Drifte maintains that the reported export and delivery of missile technology and parts from North Korea to Iran and Syria, from where the EU receives a substantial amount of its oil, remain a direct security concern for the EU.
Pyongyang has a long-term strategy of "dealing with Washington and avoiding contacts with Seoul."
The inter-Korea Summit and talks of senior economic and military officials seem to show signs of change in this strategy, but recent developments raise doubts about such assertions. While the US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright is due to leave for Pyongyang on Sunday for a historic trip, AFP just reported on October 17 that North Korea has suspended the second round of economic talks with South Korea for technical problems, which was due to start from October 18. Another round of reunion for separated families in the South and North has also been delayed. Improving relations with the US is vital for North Korea to receive economic aid from international financial institutions, namely the Internal Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank and key to North Korea's entry into the ADB. After the inter-Korea Summit, the US lifted its various sanctions imposed on North Korea since the end of the Korea War. Some great leap forward, particularly the normalization of diplomatic relations, according to Taiwan's DPP lawmaker Parris Chang (張旭成), "is just a matter of time." The Washington-Pyongyang relations will also have important impact on the normalization between North Korea and other American allies. Professor Drifte also said that "If Clinton goes to Pyongyang as planned, then the EU member states will also move faster."On the other hand, Chang also cautioned that the normalization of relations between Washington and Pyongyang would also mean that it would be difficult for the US to justify the imperative to deploy the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) in the region, which the US considers a necessity to deter and counterbalance Pyongyang's missile technology development. Chang predicts the US would still give the deployment a go-ahead, which then would then be construed as targeting China's missile development, and that may in turn increase tensions in their bilateral relations.
As the middleman of the inter-Korea Summit behind the scene, China at the moment is seen by analysts to have gained an upper hand against the US in competing for influence in Northeast Asia. The revival of China's mediating role in stalemated talks on a peace treaty between South and North Korea will secure and strengthen its influences in the region. Professor Liou To-hei (
The normalization of relations between North Korea and Japan seem less optimistic. The inter-Korea Summit intensifies fear of Japanese government being left out in the reconciliatory process and development in the Korea Peninsula, and efforts are being made to improve relations with the North. The 11th round of Japan-North Korea diplomatic normalization negotiations will take place on October 30 and 31 in Beijing. But the issues of Japan's WWII compensation and the alleged kidnapping of Japanese by North Korea remain the greatest hindrance in their previous negotiations.
"Despite the domestic pressure on a solution of the kidnappings, Japanese government is hoping to rescue its bankrupting popularity through achieving diplomatic breakthroughs, such as normalizing ties with North Korea," said Professor Liou.
And he said that Tokyo hopes Beijing would assist and facilitate Japan's normalization of relations with Pyongyang. Professor Drifte notes that "Japan is the only country which has the money (or will have to pay) which North Korea needs", but a general feeling among analysts is that the normalization between Japan and North Korea would come only after that between the US and the latter.
The overall situation on the Korea Peninsula after the inter-Korea Summit is largely stable. But even President Kim Dae-jung himself reckons that the rapprochement in the Korea Peninsula needs to be a steady process and cannot be rushed through. Dealing with a highly unpredictable regime like Pyongyang, no one can be certain about the future. But as the achievements of KEDO and of President Kim's Sunshine Policy so far have shown, engagement, rather than containment, is the better option. South Korea does not have the capacity to absorb the North's stricken economy the way West Germany absorbed the East's.
Internationalization of the rapprochement in the Korean Peninsula-multilateral participation in KEDO, an internationally-endorsed `Seoul Declaration on Peace on the Korean Peninsula,' and membership for North Korea in various regional and global international organizations -- is the right and positive direction towards the eventual unification of the Korean Peninsula.
Wu Pei-shih (
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