As the DPP's presidential candidate, Chen Shui-bian (
The NUC's supporters believe Chen's participation will prevent violation of existing regulations, cool down the independence-unification dispute, and help reduce cross-strait tension. The highlighting of Chen's NUC predicament by the KMT and the New Party is politically motivated, as it not only creates a conflict between Chen, the DPP and the cross-strait task force but also highlights China policy as a major point of divergence between the ruling and opposition parties.
Whether Chen's membership of the NUC will yield the results that supporters of such a move envisage is doubtful, however. First of all, even if Chen does join it, he cannot possibly accept the guidelines in their entirety. Another dispute will, therefore, inevitably arise over how to revise the guidelines. By nature, the independence-unification issue is not just a question of national identity. It is also about a lack of consensus over the "one China" principle. Chen's membership of the NUC will be a meaningless formality if it does not help to find a solution to the independence-unification dispute.
It is also doubtful whether Beijing would respond with goodwill to Chen's involvement in the NUC. After all, it is unthinkable that Beijing's dictum about "listening to what he [Chen] says and watching what he does" is only limited to Chen's joining the NUC. If the DPP takes over the NUC, Beijing will certainly take a step further and demand that the DPP abandon its platform of advocating a referendum over independence, and that Taiwan accept the "one China" principle. If these demands are not met, then the cross-strait impasse will continue.
What's more, Chen has been making compromises and goodwill gestures to Beijing from his election victory on March 18 to the June 20 press conference. But Beijing has remained unmoved and made few positive responses. Once Chen joins the NUC, the move will be interpreted as another major compromise and proof to Beijing that its hardline strategy is working. Chen's poor resistance to pressure will, in turn, encourage hardliners in Beijing.
Chen ordered the establishment of the cross-strait task force, whose purpose is to build domestic consensus outside of the NUC. Chen should take a neutral stance between the NUC and the task force before the latter is officially launched. Only then will he be able to make best use of the DPP's Taiwan-centric position as a bargaining chip.
It is worth noting that, while the KMT and the New Party were pushing Chen to take a decisive stance over the NUC, PFP Chairman James Soong (
By not getting involved in the row and not sanctifying the NUC, the PFP can avoid being dubbed a "pro-unification" party. It also helps the PFP position itself as a party "for the people and not for ideologies." By downplaying the deep-rooted independence-unification issue, the PFP can win further space for future development.
Julian Kuo is an associate professor of political science at Soochow University.
Translated by Francis Huang.
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