On February 21, China issued a White Paper warning Taiwan that it would resort to force unless Taipei starts negotiating terms for unification soon. On February 28, the People's Liberation Daily threatened nuclear attack against the US if it dared to intervene in such an assault. The PRC has also been rapidly developing its capacity to attack and invade Taiwan -- with the dual aims of taking the island quickly before the US can react and of preventing US intervention by acquiring Sovremenny destroyers equipped with nuclear-capable Sunburn cruise missiles, designed to neutralize US aircraft carriers.
Against this background, whether the US has the capacity to deal with the emerging conflict has become crucial. During a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 7, Admiral Dennis Blair said that, if ordered, he has the capability to "ensure that any use of force across the Taiwan Strait is not successful." One would expect such a statement from the commander in chief of the US Pacific Command. Other experts, however, are less sanguine.
In a recent article in Defense News ("Can U.S. Handle Next War," May 22) Captain Daniel Davis, a former military and foreign affairs aide to Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, questioned the US' ability to defend Taiwan. He pointed out that the US military has undergone changes since the Persian Gulf War which have severely "degraded its ability to conduct sustained military operations against a legitimate foe." These crucial changes include a shift of focus to peacekeeping operations, a lessening of formerly rigorous standards, the sagging appeal of service and consequent lower recruitment and retention levels, and the failure to reorganize outdated military structures in light of the revolution in military affairs.
More pointedly, Library of Congress researcher, Larry Niksch, stated in his Washington Times essay ("Ignored issue in the Taiwan debate," May 25) that US forces in the Western Pacific are inadequate to "constitute an effective deterrence against a Chinese decision to use military force."
China has deployed some 200 missiles opposite Taiwan and that number will increase to between 600 and 800 by 2005. There is no effective defense against such missiles. Since Taiwan's military is poorly equipped for offensive actions, only US forces would be able to strike at Chinese missile launch sites to limit the damage to Taiwan. China has some 4,000 combat aircraft. A US carrier battle group has 65 fighters. The US has about another 100 fighters in Japan and no heavy bombers. US air and naval forces available for a Taiwan contingency are thin.
In his article, the focus of much attention on Capitol Hill, Niksch also noted that "the Taiwan Strait is superseding Korea as the most likely military threat to US security interests," and that the US needs to consider restructuring its 100,000 troops in East Asia by adding considerably more air and naval forces, including at least one more carrier battle group, additional strike fighters and Tomahawk missile launching submarines and heavy bombers.
Most observers agree that a PRC invasion of Taiwan is not imminent since China cannot yet be confident of a blitzkrieg victory. However, China could take Kinmen and Matsu before January 2001 by taking advantage of President Bill Clinton's aversion to war casualties. The objectives would be to destroy or capture the Taiwanese garrison, to create a precedent for US acquiescence in Chinese coercion, and thus to weaken the morale of the Taiwanese before the main invasion a few years hence.
In view of the looming conflict in the Taiwan Strait, what can Taiwanese-Americans do?
We can lobby the US Senate and urge support for the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA). We can voice our concern to Congress and the media about the inadequacy of US air and naval forces near the Strait. Clearly, the current administration is not fully living up to the requirement of the Taiwan Relations Act "to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan."
We can encourage A-bian (阿扁), through proper channels, to build up morale and strengthen the Taiwanese people's will to resist aggression. The US will surely go to Taiwan's aid if the people of Taiwan unequivocally demonstrate their resolve to defend their freedom.
Li Thian-hok is a board member at large of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs and chair of the diplomacy committee of World United Formosans for Independence (USA).
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